The market dynamics of the meme token PEPE present a complex situation: on-chain data shows a lack of confidence among large investors, while technical charts reveal potential bullish signals, leaving traders at a crossroads.
Whale liquidation, market under pressure
On-chain data reveals that a PEPE whale (wallet address 0x6ea4…FE0) has emptied its entire position of 2.2 trillion PEPE over the past month, expected to incur a loss of $3.5 million.
This whale withdrew these tokens from Binance in mid-May with a total value of $27.64 million, but due to price declines, ultimately re-deposited in three batches: June 8, June 13, and June 18, with the last batch of 600 billion PEPE (worth $6.04 million) completed on June 18.
This move marks the complete exit of the whale from the PEPE market, with all funds flowing back to the original platform. Such a massive sell-off is typically seen as a short-term bearish signal, reflecting a decline in the whale's confidence in the future trend of PEPE. The market is now closely watching whether other large holders will follow suit, further intensifying price pressure.
Bullish flag pattern, significant upside potential
Despite the on-chain activity leaning bearish, PEPE's technical outlook shows hope. On June 18, the Binance PEPE/USDT daily chart formed a bullish flag pattern, a classic continuation pattern suggesting that prices may continue the previous upward trend after consolidation.
After experiencing a significant surge in early May, PEPE entered a narrow downward channel for consolidation and has yet to break above the upper trend line of the flag pattern. If a breakout is confirmed, based on the flagpole height calculation, the target price is approximately $0.00002051, representing a potential increase of up to 102% from the current price of $0.00001010.
The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA, $0.00001137) constitutes the primary resistance level. If PEPE returns to this level, bullish expectations will be strengthened. The daily trading volume reached 5.1 trillion PEPE, indicating ample market liquidity, supporting potential breakthroughs.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) shows that PEPE's momentum is weak. TradingView data indicates that the RSI for the PEPE/USDT daily chart has dropped to 37.65, near the oversold region (below 30). The current RSI forms a bearish divergence with the yellow signal line (45.03), suggesting that the short-term downward trend may continue unless buying momentum picks up.
Over the past year, PEPE's RSI has fluctuated between 30 and 70, often rebounding near current levels. If the RSI further drops into the oversold region, it may trigger a buying counterattack, but current signs of momentum recovery are limited.
As of the time of writing, the price of PEPE is $0.00001010, facing pressure in the short term due to whale sell-offs. The bullish flag pattern on the technical side provides optimistic expectations for traders, but the weak RSI signal reminds the market to remain cautious. Investors should closely monitor whether the price breaks above the flag's upper trend line and whether the RSI enters the oversold region to determine the timing of a potential rebound.
