BTC Market Analysis: Tug of War Continues, Key Support Faces Test
Short-term Trend: Game of Fluctuations
During the day, BTC showed slight upward fluctuations but shifted to a downward trend in the afternoon. The release of CPI data in the evening triggered intense volatility, with prices quickly oscillating before continuing a downward trend. A rebound occurred after three in the morning, but it fell back under the pressure of the 1-hour EMA52 line, indicating fierce contention between bulls and bears in the short term.
Daily Structure: Doji Hides Trend Change Signal
The daily line closed with a small bullish doji with upper and lower shadows, and trading volume decreased by about one-third compared to the previous day, which is within the normal fluctuation range. Notably:
MA30 moving average has shifted from flat to slightly downward, suggesting a potential weakening of the medium-term trend.
MACD is above the zero axis but with weakened downward momentum, indicating a need for technical correction.
Prices have repeatedly tested the EMA52 moving average but failed to form a strong rebound, and the effectiveness of support is gradually weakening.
Key Level Analysis: Risk of Breaking Higher
The current price has tested the daily EMA52 support multiple times, but the strength of the rebounds is decreasing, raising caution about downward break risk. The upper pressure zone of 106800-110300 constitutes strong resistance; if broken, it may test the 120400-130000 range. The lower support level to focus on is 102850; if lost, it will test the critical area of 97670-95930.
Strategy Tips:
The market is at a directional choice window, and it is recommended to closely monitor the effectiveness of the 102850 support. If it breaks down with increased volume, it may trigger accelerated declines; conversely, if it can stabilize above the EMA52 moving average and break through 106800, the short-term downward trend may be reversed. In the current market environment, position management is more important than directional judgment.
