ETH Technical Analysis: Following BTC's Fluctuating Momentum, Beware of False Breakout Traps
Ethereum's price movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin, with hourly fluctuations continuously narrowing. The daily candles have consistently formed doji patterns, and trading volume is low, leaving the market in a wait-and-see state. Currently, the price hovers near the daily EMA52 moving average, at the lower edge of a key fluctuation range. If Bitcoin maintains its sideways movement, ETH may experience a short-term rebound; however, the upside potential is limited, and caution is warranted for the risk of a quick drop after a false breakout.
Key Indicator Observations
Moving Average System: The daily MA30 is flat, showing no clear direction, while EMA52 has become a battleground for short-term bulls and bears.
MACD Indicator: The downward momentum above the zero line is weakening, but a golden cross has not yet formed, leaving the sustainability of any rebound in doubt.
Volume Performance: Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a lack of large capital involvement in the market, which limits the strength of any rebound.
Key Long/Short Levels
Upper Resistance: 2630 (short-term resistance) → 2770 → 2960 (strong resistance area) → 3060 (psychological level)
Lower Support: 2430 (intraday support) → 2320 (key defensive level) → 2200 → 2130 (strong support at daily MA120)
Future Market Strategy
If ETH rebounds along with BTC, the 2630-2770 area can be seen as a high-selling opportunity. If it breaks below the 2320 support, partial short positions can be established after confirming a bounce, with a target towards the 2200-2130 area. The vicinity of 2130 is a strong support level at daily MA120, where a better medium-term buying opportunity may arise. The current market is still primarily linked to BTC, with a low probability of independent trends, so it is advisable to patiently wait for clearer opportunities after the adjustment period ends.
