[8.25 Crypto Morning Report | Market Volatility, Whale Movements, Is the Bull Run Still Halfway Through?]
1️⃣ BTC continues its downward trend, approaching its recent low. Is this a deliberate attempt to suppress the dominance rate, or a sign of an impending reversal?
2️⃣ ETH quickly plunged after reaching a high, triggering large-scale liquidations and putting bulls to the test.
3️⃣ SOL experienced a sudden pullback after breaking through its previous high, but it remains firmly above $200, demonstrating strong support.
4️⃣ OKX launched a $100 million X Layer ecosystem fund, sending OKB soaring 9%. The market is watching for follow-up action.
5️⃣ Tom Lee stated: Most people still don't hold cryptocurrencies, and the market is still in its early stages.
6️⃣ Willy Woo noted: This bull market is being hampered by persistent selling pressure from ancient whales.
7️⃣ CME FedWatch shows: The probability of a September rate cut has reached 87.3%, while expectations for maintaining high interest rates are only 12.7%.
8️⃣ On-chain activity: An ancient address sold 18,142 BTC (approximately $2.04 billion) in one go, while simultaneously increasing its spot holdings of ETH and opening a long position on Hyperliquid.
9️⃣ Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz revealed: He has established a long position in HYPE.
🔟 Bitcoin Magazine CEO asserts: The BTC bear market may be over in the next few years.
1️⃣1️⃣ Du Jun revealed: Chinese institutions are emulating the "MicroStrategy model," with one ETH treasury hoarding 300,000 coins.
1️⃣2️⃣ Berachain co-founder emphasized: ICOs and public offerings may return to the mainstream, and the large-scale airdrop model is unsustainable.
1️⃣3️⃣ 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino's opinion: ETH's institutional holdings are healthier than BTC's.
The decline of WIFI has become a foregone conclusion, and profit taking before the market opens has triggered a chain of selling pressure.
The profit margin that surged 30% before the market has already led to a large amount of profit taking, not to mention those who strategically positioned themselves for multiple returns.
Now, with every point the price drops, more profit takers are choosing to cash out—this selling pressure has formed a vicious cycle: declines trigger more sell-offs, and more sell-offs exacerbate the decline.
Unless new capital comes in or the project team releases good news, it will be difficult to break this negative feedback loop.
The recent trend of SOL is very close to that of Ethereum. Last night, it also experienced a quick surge, once again approaching the 200 USD round number. However, this position clearly has pressure and was unable to remain stable, followed by a pullback on an hourly basis.
As long as it cannot effectively break through and stabilize at 200 USD, the price will continue to oscillate or even pull back. Only by truly stabilizing at this key position can the upper space potentially be opened. In the short term, SOL is likely to follow the rhythm of Ethereum.
This rebound mainly confirms the pullback to the daily EMA52 line, but it is important to note that this position is no longer effective support. Stronger support is actually near the daily MA120 line, and if the price returns there, it may actually be a good opportunity to enter.
Regarding resistance levels, key positions to focus on include 203, 213, 237, and 250 USD. As for support levels, pay attention to 177, 165, 156, 145, and 136 USD in sequence.
Bitcoin breaks through with the help of interest rate cut expectations and Ethereum's upward momentum. Ethereum reaches a new historical high for the first time in four years, maintaining its leading position. SOL follows with a rebound, waiting for the opportunity to kickstart an independent market.
Powell's latest remarks point out that the unemployment rate is stable, and the Federal Reserve will proceed with "caution." WLFI announces the opening of the first round of 20% token distribution on September 1, with timely distribution on working days. The top official in charge of cryptocurrency at the IRS resigns and joins a cryptocurrency tax firm.
Jito submits S-1 application documents for the VanEck JitoSOL ETF. Ethena has been approved to support USDe on the BNB chain, with potential expansion to XRP and HYPE in the future. Canada cancels multiple retaliatory tariffs against American products.
Trump publicly states: If Cook does not resign voluntarily, he will consider firing him. Huaxing Capital collaborates with YZi Labs, planning to invest $100 million in BNB. Ripple and SBI jointly launch the RLUSD stablecoin in Japan.
PlasmaFDN contract has officially launched, and several exchanges are actively promoting the listing process.
After Ethereum retested the 12-hour EMA52 line, it experienced nearly two days of horizontal consolidation at the hourly level. Last night, driven by Powell's speech, the market suddenly surged, skyrocketing over 16% in a single day, with Binance spot prices hitting an all-time high.
The momentum for this round of increase mainly comes from the dual support of the 3-day MA30 and the 2-day EMA52. The current rebound can be seen as a confirmation of the retest of the 1-day MA30 and the 12-hour EMA52.
It is important to note that the pullback from August 14 to 19 has not fully completed, and yesterday's surge was more a result of short-term capital flow. Do not blindly chase high prices; be cautious of the potential pullback trend that may follow.
The daily EMA52 remains a key support level in the near term. Resistance can be observed at levels 4880, 5000, 5400, and 5800, while support levels are 4560, 4380, 4080, and 3780 in order.
SOL yesterday formed a relatively long bearish candle, with trading volume shrinking by about a quarter compared to the previous day. The price has currently pulled back to near the daily MA30 line, but this moving average itself is still in a downward trend, and the support strength is not very strong. The MACD is operating not far above the zero line, with downward momentum continuing to increase, indicating an overall trend leaning towards adjustment.
Currently, the price is fluctuating repeatedly near the support level, bouncing up and down frequently, indicating that both bulls and bears are still fiercely contesting. The daily MA30 is not a strong and effective support; what is truly worth paying attention to is the daily MA120 moving average below. Once the price falls back to this area, it might be worth considering a bold layout.
The MA120 and the area marked in red in the chart will form a double support structure, and around 164 will be a point worth seizing for a rebound entry. If it can reach this area, a decent rebound trend is expected to occur.
Ethereum also closed with a small bearish candle yesterday, and the trading volume decreased by nearly half compared to the previous day. From the daily chart perspective, the MA30 still maintains an upward trend, and although the MACD is still above the zero line, the downward momentum has intensified, and the overall trend is still stronger than Bitcoin.
After the price dropped to the 12-hour EMA52 moving average, a relatively strong rebound occurred, but unfortunately, its sustainability was not sufficient. I personally judge that the adjustment is not over yet, and it is highly likely to continue to retrace downward, at least until it reaches the daily MA30 or even EMA52 to be considered complete.
Currently, on the hourly level, it is in a sideways consolidation phase, and the market is waiting for a directional choice. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. If the price can fall back to the strong support area below, it might be worth considering entering for a rebound.
In terms of operations, you can place some long orders in batches at the daily MA30 and EMA52 levels. If you want to short in the short term, you can pay attention to the range of 4400-4480.
Bitcoin formed a small bearish candle yesterday, with trading volume shrinking by one-third compared to the previous day. On the daily level, the MA30 has begun to turn downwards, the MACD fast line has crossed below the zero line, and the slow line is gradually approaching the zero line, indicating an overall weak trend.
After touching around 112000, a weak hourly level rebound occurred. This position is quite critical—it is both the low point of August 2nd and the starting point of the August rebound, currently forming initial support. However, caution is advised: support cannot withstand repeated testing; if the price retests multiple times without stabilizing, it may accelerate to break down.
If it continues to go down, the next strong support area is in the range of 110270 - 109100, which is near the EMA52 of the 2-day line and the MA120 of the daily line. At this location, a decent rebound is expected to occur.
For short-term operations, consider looking for short opportunities near the EMA52 moving average on the 2-hour or 4-hour level.
🚀 8.22 Crypto Morning Report | The market awaits Powell's speech, ETH becomes the focus, regulation and capital undercurrents surge
1️⃣ BTC fell below $113,000, continuing the fluctuations, and the market's attention is on ETH's movement.
2️⃣ ETH is consolidating around $4,150, with Powell's speech on Friday potentially being a key turning point.
3️⃣ SOL's movement is largely in sync with ETH, with a highly consistent volatility rhythm.
4️⃣ OKB surged 50% in a single day, setting a new historical high, validating the logic behind platform tokens in the market.
5️⃣ Upbit lists AERO, as the South Korean exchange continues to expand its listing channels, the Base ecosystem DEX is worth noting.
6️⃣ The CFTC has launched a new wave of crypto regulation actions, increasing short-term market uncertainty.
7️⃣ On-chain hotspot: The first buyer of $YZY has been revealed, who is the giant whale that previously profited $100 million from trading $TRUMP.
8️⃣ Federal Reserve's Collins stated that if employment weakens, interest rates may be cut soon, but CME shows the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to 75%.
9️⃣ Coinbase's cbBTC has become the fastest-growing synthetic BTC on the ETH chain, altering the landscape.
🔟 The U.S. “anti-digital dollar” camp is advancing, opposing CBDC provisions being included in the defense bill.
1️⃣1️⃣ TON receives strong support: Verb Technology rebrands to Ton Strategy Company and invests $713 million to acquire TON, significantly boosting its financial power.
1️⃣2️⃣ The Justice Department commented on the Tornado Cash case: “Writing code is not a crime,” a positive development for developers.
1️⃣3️⃣ Infighting at the Federal Reserve escalates: Justice Department officials urge Powell to replace Governor Cook.
1️⃣4️⃣ Trump receives good news: The New York appellate court dismissed his $464 million fine, significantly reducing campaign pressure.
📈 SOL Technical Analysis: Strong Rebound but Concerns Remain, Correlation Attributes are Key
Solana's daily chart shows a long solid bullish candlestick, with trading volume slightly increasing compared to the previous day. The candlestick pattern forms a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a relatively strong rebound characteristic in the short term.
The price received support after retracing to the daily EMA52 moving average and began to rebound. However, Bitcoin has not yet completed its adjustment cycle, and if Bitcoin declines again, SOL is likely to follow suit.
If Bitcoin enters a sideways consolidation, SOL is expected to continue its upward movement after a brief adjustment, aiming for the target range of $190-$200.
Attention should be paid to the $200 integer level, as this position has historically formed significant resistance multiple times, and it is expected to be difficult to effectively hold above it in the short term. The current rise is still viewed as a rebound, and after the rebound ends, prices will likely retest deeper levels of support. The strong support area is near the daily MA120 moving average, which also coincides with the upper edge of the red box in the chart.
In terms of operation, it is advisable to pay attention to the performance at key levels; it is not advisable to blindly chase after the rebound at high levels.
📈 ETH Technical Analysis: Strong Rebound but Concerns Remain, Beware of Highs and Pullbacks
Ethereum's daily chart closed with a bullish candle, completely covering the previous day's bearish candle, indicating a stronger rebound compared to Bitcoin. Currently, the daily MA30 moving average remains in an upward trend, but the MACD indicator is operating at a considerable distance above the zero line, with bearish momentum increasing.
After the price retreated to the 12-hour EMA52 moving average, a rebound at the hourly level began; however, this surge is still regarded as a technical retracement, and the overall downward trend has not changed. The strongest resistance level for the rebound is expected around $4480. It is crucial to remain highly alert to market traps that encourage buying, to avoid encountering a new round of decline when everyone is chasing highs.
The core support level is at the daily EMA52 moving average, and a significant rebound is expected after the price reaches this area.
The current trend can be described as follows: After multiple cycles of rebound momentum intertwining, the price reached a new high and retreated to key 12-hour moving averages, and is currently undergoing a 2-4 hour level retracement correction.
Operational Suggestions:
You can short in the $4400-$4480 range.
Gradually place long orders near the daily MA30 and EMA52 support levels.
📉 BTC Technical Analysis: Weak Rebound, Downward Pressure Still Exists
Bitcoin's daily line has closed with a small bullish candle, and the trading volume has slightly shrunk compared to the previous day, which is a normal level. The current 30-day moving average has started to turn downward, the MACD fast line has crossed below the zero line, and the slow line is also about to follow suit. After touching the low point on August 3, a technical rebound at the hourly level has occurred.
The strength of this rebound is weak, and it is currently close to the resistance level of $115,000 that we indicated. It is important to note that there is still a risk of further downward movement in the market after the rebound. If the price effectively breaks through $115,000, the next target will point to the daily 30-day moving average ($116,870), at which position short positions can still be considered.
The key support below is at the two-day EMA52 moving average; if the price retraces to this area and shows a pin bar pattern, it is expected to trigger a stronger rebound, pushing the two-day level upward trend.
Short-term trading suggestion: Lightly short near the EMA52 moving average at the 2-4 hour level, while waiting to set up long positions in the support range between the three-day MA30 and the two-day EMA52.