The world is closely watching the Federal Reserve! Will there be a signal for an interest rate cut on May 8?
On May 6, with less than 40 hours left until the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global markets are holding their breath. Although investors are anticipating good news about an interest rate cut, reality may disappoint most – this time, the Federal Reserve may not even provide hints like "a potential cut in the future."
Why is cutting rates so difficult? The key lies in two conditions:
First, inflation must be fully controlled;
Second, the economy must face serious problems.
Currently, neither of these conditions is met, making a rate cut in May highly unlikely.
What worries the market even more is the fluctuating tariff policies of the Trump administration, which add a lot of uncertainty to the future. Unless there are significant economic changes, a rate cut in the short term may just be a beautiful wish for investors.
Trump has recently been vocal on social media: "There is no inflation at all, hurry and cut rates!" The reason is simple – cutting rates can stimulate the economy and boost the stock market, which are political capital he desires. But will the Federal Reserve really listen to him?
At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is also brewing changes. Tomorrow, Ethereum will undergo an important upgrade. Historical experience shows that the price of Ethereum often plummets after each upgrade, like last time when it halved from $4000. Will it repeat the same fate this time? Or will it rise first and then fall? The market is watching closely.
In this moment filled with uncertainty, what investors need most is to observe calmly. Every move of the Federal Reserve and subtle changes in economic data could become key factors affecting the market.
Remember: the market always creates opportunities amid fluctuations, but also harbors risks.
Gold Soars Past $3,300! Trump’s Policies Ignite Market Safe-Haven Frenzy
On Tuesday (May 6), in the early Asian market, spot gold held steady around $3,330 per ounce, continuing the strong upward trend from the previous trading day. Driven by a weak dollar and a surge in safe-haven sentiment, gold prices skyrocketed nearly 3% on Monday, reaching a near one-week high, ultimately closing at $3,333.73 per ounce, nearly $100 higher than last Friday's close. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement for guidance on the next steps.
The dollar index fell 0.2% on Monday, further enhancing gold's appeal. Concerns about the latest tariff policies from the Trump administration continue to escalate, especially after he announced on Sunday plans to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films, reigniting global trade tensions and leading a significant influx of safe-haven funds into the gold market.
As trade uncertainties grow, gold's safe-haven properties are fully activated. Will this policy risk-driven rally continue? The Federal Reserve's every move may be crucial.
• BTC quickly rebounded after dropping below 94,000, demonstrating strong market resilience and continues to be influenced by fluctuations in the US stock market.
• ETH maintains a stable trend, with the ecosystem gradually recovering but the price performance remains flat.
• SOL has recently outperformed BTC, and DeFi Development Corp plans to invest $3.5 million to establish validator nodes.
Policy and Regulatory Updates
• The US CFTC will participate as an observer in the tokenization pilot project.
• The SEC has once again delayed the approval decision for the Canary Litecoin ETF.
• The Republican Party has released a cryptocurrency regulatory draft, aiming to clarify the regulatory boundaries between the CFTC and the SEC.
Industry Hotspots Tracking
• Trump hosted two themed dinners: one for TRUMP token supporters and another inviting innovators from the AI and cryptocurrency fields, sparking widespread discussion.
• Chainlink launches the Genesis season reward program.
• Binance Launchpool goes live with the Space and Time (SXT) project.
• Ethena Labs will integrate USDe into the Hyperliquid and HyperEVM ecosystems.
• MicroStrategy has once again increased its holdings by 1,900 BTC, costing approximately $180 million.
Controversial Events
• After announcing an airdrop plan, OKX DEX faced user skepticism due to rule issues. The platform urgently adjusted the plan and removed the related activities.
Market Observation
• BTC's short-term volatility has intensified, but bottom support is evident.
• There is a divergence between ETH ecosystem development and price trends.
• On-chain activities for SOL are expected to welcome a new wave of growth.
• The US cryptocurrency regulatory framework is gradually becoming clearer.
• Institutions continue to increase their BTC holdings.
Today's Focus Points
1. Can BTC hold the critical support level of 94,000?
2. Will SOL's on-chain activities continue to warm up?
3. The subsequent developments in US regulatory dynamics.
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SOL Market Analysis | Opportunities Emerging Amidst Fluctuations
Current Technical Formation
• Daily close with a small bullish candle, EMA52 moving average support is effective
• Recently maintaining a downward trend, but the overall decline is only 10%
• MA30 moving average remains upward, mid-term trend is not broken
Key Price Structure
Support System:
Short-term Key Level: 137 (Daily MA30)
Intermediate Support: 124-112 Range
Long-term Defensive Level: 98-82 Area
Resistance System:
First Resistance: 160 Round Number
Breakout Target: 172-183-204
Market Behavior Observation
• Ongoing mild adjustments for over ten days have cleared some positions
• Weekly level rebound structure remains intact
• Significant correlation with BTC, but the volatility is relatively converging
Operational Strategy Suggestions
Position Strategy:
Maintain bullish outlook above the 137 support
Be wary of deep pullbacks if MA30 is effectively broken
Trading Strategy:
Swing trading within the wide range of 120-180
Focus on trading opportunities in the 137-160 range
Mid-term Outlook
• Awaiting a macroeconomic shift (expectations of interest rate cuts)
• Before the main upward trend kicks off, the consolidation pattern may persist
• Continuous attention is needed on BTC's leading role in the overall market
Risk Warning
• If the 137 support is broken, it may test the 124-112 range
• Be cautious of sudden market fluctuations
• Position management should match the characteristics of a fluctuating market
Conclusion
SOL is in the daily adjustment phase within the weekly rebound cycle, and the gain or loss of the 137 support level will become the key in the short term. It is recommended that investors remain patient, gradually accumulate positions after confirming effective support, and wait for the subsequent main upward trend to unfold.
ETH Market Analysis | Consolidation Awaiting Breakthrough
Current Market Status
• Daily chart continues to show narrow-range consolidation, directional signals are not yet clear
• Short-term trend remains highly dependent on BTC market movements
• Trading volume remains stable, with no significant capital movement
Technical Structure Assessment
Key Support Zones:
Short-term defensive level: 1760-1690 range
Medium-term important support: 1540-1460 range
Upward Target Levels:
First resistance at the 2000 round number
After breakout, look for resistance zone at 2120-2310
Ideal Trend Projection
Most favorable market evolution path:
Follow BTC to complete a quick pullback (testing 8-hour level support)
Form a strong rebound after a daily lower shadow
Breakout with volume and target 2100
Enter adjustment after completing the daily upward structure
Operational Strategy Recommendations
• Wait-and-see strategy:
Wait for clear breakout signals before entering
Monitor BTC's influence on ETH
• Proactive positioning strategy:
You can gradually build positions in the 1760-1690 support zone
Increase positions after breaking through 2000
Risk Warning
• A drop below 1690 support may trigger a deeper adjustment
• Beware of false breakouts that lure in buyers
• Overall position should be dynamically adjusted in line with BTC movements
Conclusion
The current market is at a critical decision point; it is recommended to be patient and wait for the technical structure to complete. A breakout above 2000 will confirm the start of a new upward trend, while a valid drop below 1760 may extend the adjustment period. Trading strategies should be based on key level breakouts.
BTC Technical Analysis Report | Key Support and Layout Opportunities in Short-term Adjustment
Market Dynamics Review
• Yesterday, the price retraced after touching the 12-hour MA30 moving average, triggering an hourly-level rebound
• The rebound was hindered by the 1-hour EMA52 moving average and fell back again
• The daily line closed with a small bullish candle, and the trading volume slightly increased compared to the weekend but remains within a normal range
Key Technical Signal Analysis
Moving Average System Guidance
Currently focusing on the 8-hour EMA52 support (92840)
If this level is touched, it is expected to trigger an 8-hour-level rebound
Momentum Indicator Assessment
The daily MACD death cross above the zero line indicates the continuation of short-term adjustments
The weekly upward trend is clear, and the daily pullback is a healthy correction
Key Event Time Windows
• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, 2 AM Beijing Time)
• Market liquidity may remain cautious before the decision
Operational Strategy Recommendations
Support Level Layout
A tentative long position can be established near the primary support at 92840
The secondary support range of 91550-89000 is suitable for incremental positions
Resistance Level Response
Breaking through 96860 can confirm the end of the adjustment, targeting 99700-102044
Maintain range trading ideas until broken
Risk Control Key Points
• The Federal Reserve decision may trigger intensified short-term volatility
• Strictly set stop-loss below key support (below 89000)
Trend Conclusion
The weekly upward trend remains unchanged; the current daily pullback is a technical correction, focusing on layout opportunities in the range of 92840-89000. The market may choose a clear direction after the Federal Reserve decision, so flexibility in positions should be maintained.