#美联储FOMC会议 Policy Deep Impact:

1. Key Conclusions from June Decision

1. Interest rate decision remains unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, 2. Dot plot shows only one rate cut this year, down from three previously.

3. Powell stated that there has been little progress on inflation falling, and does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes.

2. Transmission Mechanism to Ethereum:

The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy has led to a surge in the dollar index, while US Treasury yields have broken above 4.3%.

These two situations have triggered a sell-off in risk assets, which in turn has caused a shrinkage in cryptocurrency liquidity, ultimately leading to a sudden drop in ETH's volume by 85%.

Data verification shows that 24 hours after the decision, there was a net outflow of 120 million ETH from exchanges, and the stablecoin market cap shrank by 380 million.

3. Long/Short Game Path for Ethereum:

Path 1:

70% probability of a breakdown and decline, trigger condition is a 15-minute close below 2,475. Target 2475 → 2450 Fibonacci extension → 2400 psychological level.

Catalyst, US June CPI expectation at 3.8%, higher than the previous value of 3.3%.

Path 2:

25% probability of a technical rebound trigger condition, standing above 2503 midline + MACD golden cross, rebound space 2503 → 2530 upper line → 2550 volume determines the upper limit.

Prerequisite, needs to increase volume to above 50 million, currently 3.3 times.

4. New Opening Opportunities before 4 PM:

Short position, confirm breakdown at 2480, stop loss at 2510, target 2440.

Long position, breakthrough at 2503 with volume, stop loss at 2480, target 2530.

5. On-Chain Data Alerts:

1. Whale activity - Address starting with 0x28C9 deposits 7,500 ETH worth 18.6 million to Coinbase.

2. Derivatives signal - Binance funding rate at -0.023% dominated by shorts - Open interest down 12% → Longs actively exiting.

3. Miner selling pressure, Ethereum miner balance down 3.2% weekly (Hiveon data).

6. Gold Trading Window:

1. Immediate attention needed from 02:00-04:00, Powell's speech at the ECB forum may reinforce a hawkish stance - volatility transmission in US stocks at the close.

2. Intraday node - 08:30: UK CPI data (expectation 3.5%)

Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, ETH's short-term outlook remains bleak. It is advisable to close 60% of short positions at 2530 to secure profits, while the remaining position targets 2440.

If support at 2475 holds, it is necessary to decisively close positions. New openings are only recommended for breakdown shorting, and it is not advisable to bottom-fish at the current price; strictly control position size to ≤5%!

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