Powell's latest speech is here again! The information is more substantial. The economic fundamentals are indeed stable, the job market is strong, but inflation is still a major headache. Although the cooling housing market has helped a bit, tariffs are starting to show their effects. Powell stated that companies generally plan to pass on the tariff costs to consumers, and price pressures will continue; this wave of inflation shock is not a one-time event.
The Fed is now fixated on the 2% target, but their stance is clear: hold steady and wait for more data. They themselves admit that their predictions are inaccurate, especially regarding long-term policy paths. Fitch has also weighed in, saying that the US fiscal outlook is troubling, the deficit isn't going down, and Social Security and Medicare expenditures will push the deficit higher; policy changes are necessary. Overall, the Fed is unlikely to change interest rates in the short term, but the two landmines of tariffs and fiscal policy are buried, and ordinary people's lives may become tighter, with prices not easing anytime soon.
Can't we just agree with Trump for once! Damn old thief!