Although Powell emphasized inflation risks (especially the possibility of tariffs leading to higher prices for summer goods), the Federal Reserve still clearly indicated that it would cut interest rates twice (a total of 50 basis points) in 2025, consistent with the March forecast. This signal was seen by the market as 'not further turning hawkish', alleviating previous fears of a reduction in the number of rate cuts.
Powell has repeatedly stated that the path of interest rates is 'not with full confidence', and future policy relies entirely on economic data. This statement has instead given the market some breathing room—if inflation falls in the future, rate cuts can still be initiated as scheduled. The current characterization of rates as 'moderately restrictive' also suggests that the economy is not severely constrained.
Bitcoin ETF continues to attract funds: On June 19, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $52 million, with institutional buying offsetting short-term selling pressure.
Key support levels remain effective: Bitcoin formed strong support at $103,650, maintaining a range of $103,000 to $108,000 for the past 48 hours without breaking down.
Ethereum staking hits a new high: Although Ethereum ETF fund flows stagnated in the short term (e.g., zero inflow from Fidelity on June 19), the increase in staking volume and active addresses on-chain show that long-term confidence remains solid.
Middle East situation causing disturbances: The U.S. may intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, boosting risk-averse sentiment, while gold rises, Bitcoin benefits simultaneously due to its 'digital gold' attribute.
Trump supports stablecoin legislation: He urged the House of Representatives to pass the 'GENIUS Act', boosting crypto-related stocks like Circle and indirectly supporting market sentiment.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a 'new and old fund exchange' phase: Short-term speculators are taking profits (e.g., miners selling), but long-term holders are buying on dips, creating a supply-demand balance. This structure has kept prices in a range of $100,000 to $110,000 for 42 days, with limited pullback.
The reason the crypto space can digest Powell's 'hawkish warning' is that the market is more focused on the actual path of interest rates rather than short-term statements, and the unique narrative of crypto assets (institutional funds + geopolitical hedging + regulatory developments) provides independent support. The subsequent trend needs to closely monitor three sets of signals: whether inflation data has peaked, the fund flows of Ethereum ETFs, and the evolution of the Middle East situation. If all three show marginal improvement, Bitcoin may break through the resistance level of $106,000.
