1. Fundamental framework – Why (re)talk about buying?
What to remember
Escalation USA ↔ Iran (sanctions, risk of ignition) Increase in risk aversion on equity/fiat markets; search for “safe havens”.
Flows are dispersing: gold, treasury bonds… and now Bitcoin as a “non-sovereign” asset.
Mature “digital-gold” narrative
When tensions rise, the gold ↔ BTC pair is often correlated (≈ +0.35 since 2023).
BTC benefits from the “hedge” without the logistical constraints of metal.
Halving 2024 → Limited supply
The daily issued stock has fallen below 450 BTC; each demand shock weighs more.
Any geopolitical liquidation can create “hollow” buying zones, but structural scarcity remains.
Institutional adoption (US spot ETFs, corporate treasuries)
Net withdrawals from ETFs post-panic are already calming; historicals show an average rebound of ~25 % after a -10 % purge. Institutional accumulation pockets are observed around 102-104 k USDT.
2. Technical reading – Where is the “gravity zone” hiding?
> Center of gravity (CG) = weighted average of closing prices x volumes (Σ P×V / Σ V) over N critical periods.
Daily CG 20d ≈ 103,800 USDT
Weekly CG 12 weeks ≈ 97,400 USDT
This “gravity bubble” acts as a statistical orbit: the further the price deviates, the stronger the pullback force over a 2-6 week horizon.
Confluence of current indicators
Unit Support(s) Resistance(s) Signals
1 h 103,300 / 102,700 (lower Boll band + SMA100) 106,800 (EMA200) RSI(6) rose from 22 → 39: beginning of bullish divergence.
4 h 100,400 (wick of June 13) 109,000 (top June 16) MACD compression = probability of squeeze.
1 d 97,400 (weekly CG) 112,000 (upper Boll band) Decreasing volume → latent range.
3. “Safety Ladder” strategy (Dollar-Cost Laddering)
Limit tier Size (%) Logic
101,000 USDT 25 % Below the 20d CG – “hard core” long term
98,500 USDT 20 % CME Gap + lower weekly Bollinger
95,000 USDT 15 % Pivot point 0.382 Fib. of the Q2 bull run
Alert zone → 91,000 USDT 40 % liquidity Will be used either to reinforce if capitulation, or to redeploy when the price crosses > CG.
> ⚠️ Ultra-secured
1. GTC orders on Binance Spot with Iceberg (avoids being sniped).
2. Stop alerts on the app (no market stop-loss: risk of slippage in flash crash).
3. As soon as a tier is executed ➜ immediate transfer to cold wallet or Binance Vault.
4. Max BTC allocation = 15% of your net worth; remains in stablecoins T-Bill-backed or USDC.
Crisis Management Checklist
1. News monitoring (official DoD flows, Reuters Agency).
2. Correlation Watch: if VIX > 35 and Gold ≥ +5 % over 3 days, wait for confirmation before reloading.
3. On-chain flows: monitor exchange inflows > 5k BTC/24h (selling panic signal).
4. No leverage effects > 1.5× as long as the realized volatility 30d > 65%.
5. Conclusion – “Serenity is an edge”
Fear cycles create the gravity zones where strong hands rebuild their positions.
By methodically staggering your purchases, coupling fundamental & technical analyses, and prioritizing operational security, you turn a crisis climate into an asymmetric opportunity: bounded risk, intact bullish potential.
> “It is not necessary to foresee everything; it is enough to be prepared.” – Resilient Mathematics, Mantra 7
🟢 Stay Safe & Stack Bits! 💫
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