Powell's Tune Tonight: Will He Inject Liquidity or Strangle Crypto? Trump Publicly Calls for a 100 Basis Point Rate Cut, Not 200 Basis Points

1. Core Logic of the Interest Rate Decision

> Dovish Signal: If Powell mentions "economic risks rising" or "data-dependent decisions", it may hint at a rate cut path, driving BTC to challenge the 106,000 resistance level (a key technical point).

> Hawkish Risk: If he emphasizes "inflation stickiness exceeding expectations" or "geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices", a stronger dollar may trigger a sell-off in the crypto market, and BTC might fall back to the 103,000 support level.

(Supplement on the impact of the Middle East situation on inflation: If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, it could undermine the BTC 104,800–105,400 support zone)

2. Correction of Trump's Remarks and Background Supplement

> Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell as Mr. Too Late, demanding the Federal Reserve cut rates by 100 basis points (not 200 basis points), claiming that the current interest rate policy has caused the nation to lose enormous wealth and has raised government borrowing costs.

> (Deeper Motivation: Trump’s trade policy needs a low-interest-rate environment for support, and a rate cut could alleviate debt pressure and stimulate the stock market)

3. Current Market Situation and Data Support

- New Key Indicators:

- Bitcoin currently at 105,461 (up 12.71% year-to-date), Ethereum at 2,535 (down 24.03% year-to-date);

- Fear and Greed Index at 48 (neutral), BTC long-short ratio at 1.12 (slightly favoring bulls);

- If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, BTC is expected to break through 106,000 and start a new upward trend.

4. Inaccurate Investment Guidance

- Objective Suggestions:

> Short-term operations need to be cautious of a spike in volatility: Historical volatility often exceeds 30% within 1 hour after the Federal Reserve's decision, consider positioning in volatility derivatives (such as BTC options) or stablecoin arbitrage.

> Mid to long-term allocation should focus on compliant mainlines: The passage of the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill is favorable for institutional funds flowing into ETH spot ETFs (net inflow of 110 million in one week).#美联储FOMC会议