Now we have to keep a close watch on ETH, waiting for it to drop thoroughly before investing in altcoins!
Bitcoin and Ethereum have taken quite a hit in this wave, and altcoins are suffering even more, with many dropping back to the starting point of May 7, or even lower. In simple terms, altcoins might be nearing the bottom of this round.
Currently, Bitcoin is tightly held by the major players, and it wouldn't be surprising if it suddenly surged to $150,000 one day. The situation for Ethereum is different; retail investors are clustered, and leverage is still high, making it more difficult to make upward moves. Right now, Bitcoin resembles a “barometer,” clearly paving the way for altcoins to accumulate.
On the Ethereum side, from the 4-hour chart, the rebound on the 16th tricked many into chasing the rise. Many believed the bull market had arrived and rushed to increase their positions, only to be trapped right after buying, then cutting losses only to see the price rebound again—this kind of “buying leads to trapping, selling leads to rising” scenario is being played out every day in the market.
We previously mentioned that ETH is currently oscillating in the 2700-2800 range. Many people want to sell when the price returns here, but the market won’t let you operate comfortably. Every time there's a rebound, some fear “missing out” and rushes in, only to be met with a sell-off right after. You can see this wave of movement is full of long upper shadows, clearly indicating hesitation among funds chasing higher prices; just as sentiment rises, it gets harvested back.
We analyzed two possible scenarios before:
1. Oscillating type: moving back and forth between 2650-2450, wearing down the patience of short-term traders and tricking long-term funds into entering the market;
2. Breakout type: directly crashing to 2350 or even 2250, with the same goal, which is to flush out cheap chips for long-term funds.
Currently, ETH is still following the first oscillating pattern and has not broken down yet. If it really drops to 2350 or even 2250 later, it may actually build enough momentum to challenge above 3000. So remember: wait for ETH to drop to around 2200-2300 before confidently investing in altcoins!
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