6.20 Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC): Currently a very standard triangle convergence. The current rebound is in line with expectations. Focus on the range of around 108000-103400.

Ethereum (ETH): Following Bitcoin, focus on the range of around 2470-2630.

[Market Analysis]

Affected by the US stock market closure and the lack of major data-driven influences, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintained low volatility yesterday, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. Currently, the rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum lacks height because the market is worried about the expansion of the Israel-Iran situation. Media reports that Trump will decide whether to send troops to Iran within 2 weeks. If Trump announces participation in the war, it is expected to trigger a wave of risk aversion decline.

Core Influencing Factors Analysis

Although the situation between Israel and Iran has attracted market attention, the US stock market's reaction has been flat, while the cryptocurrency market's short-term volatility has intensified, highlighting that BTC's attribute as a "safe-haven asset" has not been effectively verified. The market logic shows that geopolitical conflicts have not substantially impacted the liquidity of US stocks, while the crypto market sentiment is easily disturbed by short-term news.

The traditional off-season characteristics of June-August each year are showing, and the market presents a high-frequency mode of "shock + false breakthrough". From a trading rhythm perspective, the BTC pullback range is narrowing, and the rebound space is compressed, reflecting a decrease in fund activity, and both long and short sides are in a stalemate.

Spot side: The premium trend shows that the buying momentum is exhausted, the inflow of funds is slowing down, and the market lacks continuous buying support.

Contract side: The long-short ratio has rebounded, and the optimistic sentiment of leveraged funds has heated up, but the shrinking spot liquidity implies that contracts may dominate the short-term false breakthrough market, and we need to be vigilant against the risk of long liquidation.

Spot is a real chip transaction, and contracts are leveraged bubbles. This in turn illustrates one thing: the next high probability is that contract control will create a false breakthrough.

Today's Important Events Preview

14:40 Governor of the Bank of Japan gives a speech at the Trust Association, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of monetary policy statements on the liquidity of the Asia-Pacific market.

23:00 (Beijing time): Trump convenes the US National Security Council. If it involves escalating rhetoric on the Iran situation, it may trigger fluctuations in market risk aversion sentiment.

Trading Strategies and Risks Continue in the Next Chapter