The tug-of-war over the US$105,000 rate: The Fed’s decision becomes the key variable
Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated around $105,000 on Wednesday, down 2% from the previous day, as the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later that day.#Bitcoin#Federal Reserve #Israel-Iran conflict
FXStreet analysts pointed out that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, but the statement on interest rate cuts in the quarterly economic forecast will be key - if a dovish signal is released, it may stimulate the rise of risky assets such as BTC; if the stance is hawkish, it may intensify the sell-off.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in the second half of this year, and the interest rate cut cycle may begin in September.
Historical data shows that when the Federal Reserve's policy turns to easing, Bitcoin often benefits from abundant liquidity, but the current complex situation in the Middle East may interfere with this logic.
Middle East conflict escalates: Trump's statement triggers market alert
The Iran-Israel conflict took a new turn as U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on social media that the United States knew the location of Iran's leaders but had not yet taken action, while Israeli media reported that the United States could join the war on Tuesday evening.
Affected by this, BTC fell to a low of $103,400 on Tuesday, but the US military has not taken any actual action and market panic has eased.
It is worth noting that the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on Tuesday to establish a legal framework for stablecoin regulation, which is regarded as a milestone event in the crypto industry.
At the same time, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for seven consecutive days, with an inflow of $216 million on Tuesday, indicating that institutional funds are still being deployed.
Technical analysis: 103,000 is the life and death line for both long and short positions
Bitcoin fell from $110,300 on June 10 to $105,700 on the 11th, forming the $108,000 fair value gap (FVG) resistance zone.
The current price is fluctuating above the 50-day EMA (US$103,000). If the closing price falls below this level, it may fall to the round number of US$100,000. If it breaks through the resistance of US$108,000, it is expected to challenge the historical high of US$112,000.
In terms of indicators, the daily RSI fell below the neutral range of 50, and the red momentum column expanded after the MACD death cross, indicating that the bears are dominant.
Traders generally believe that the 24 hours after the Fed’s decision will determine the short-term trend direction, and it is recommended to pay close attention to the breakthrough of the $103,000-108,000 range.
