A sharp drop before June 21 to 98081.76-100262.27 is to be expected!
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 19 at 2 a.m. According to my pioneering bear market survival rule, the time from today until 2 a.m. tomorrow is likely to see a rise! The specific rise positions have already been published in xxx today! After the rebound is in place, it will accelerate the decline starting from June 19! A sharp drop for Bitcoin to 98081.76-100262.27 before June 21 is expected, as evidenced by the graph; everyone look at the chart below, the candlestick chart just settled at 98081.76! 😁😁😁 Do you see it clearly? 🤭 Even the candlestick chart believes it will drop to 98081.76!
Of course, there will always be dead bulls whose thoughts are poles apart from mine. What do they think? You can refer to the chart I shared yesterday in xxx; the general direction is consistent, so take a close look at the chart:
The analysis from yesterday, June 17, at 14:40 is as follows (this is yesterday's analysis, not today's latest analysis). Please imagine the subsequent trend (if you don't understand, you can go to xxx to get the latest trend, especially today's rebound target):
[Little White Learn Points Community Bitcoin Market Analysis 20250617 14:40]
<1> The entire Y wave internal ending is a 5-segment decline, with the internal structure being wxyxz adjustment wave, where the black line is Y-W wave, the blue-purple line is Y-X wave, and the purple-red arrow is Y-Y wave, currently in the Y-Y wave.
<2> The purple-red line is currently experiencing a small-level single sawtooth adjustment wave, having completed 5 waves + abc, waiting for the completion of the 5 waves to close the loop. The rebound that started at 106115 will not elevate the level as long as it does not exceed 107771.34, and it will continue to drop.
<3> After a small-level single sawtooth adjustment wave of the purple-red line is completed, it will continue to expand the level of decline. The entire Y-Y wave purple-red line will follow the purple-red arrow, dropping to 100262.27-99520.27-98778.28-98081.76 between June 19 and June 21, normally not breaking 98000.
<4> During the decline of the Y-Y wave, it will be suppressed by the orange Gann angle line and supported by the green and blue Gann angle lines. The 4-hour MACD death cross will accelerate the decline.
<5> Some bullish dead bulls believe the entire Y wave is a triangular adjustment wave (formed by the convergence of the yellow upward trend line and the orange Gann angle line, see the yellow dashed line arrow for a new historical high). There is only a possibility if the pullback maintains the yellow upward trend line + re-establishes the orange Gann angle line.
A valid break below the yellow upward trend line will accelerate the decline, making the dead bulls lose their illusions; breaking below will repeatedly torment people, as bulls still have illusions.
Therefore, the yellow upward trend line and the orange Gann angle line are very important.
Unless it really stabilizes again on the orange Gann angle line, we will consider this trend.
A valid break below the yellow upward trend line can negate this trend.
<6> Another type of dead bull believes that the drop after 1119800 is a triangular adjustment wave (formed by the convergence of the yellow upward trend line and the black downward trend line, see the red line, blue-purple line, black line, purple-red line).
There is a possibility only if the yellow upward trend line is maintained through a pullback and the black downward trend line (around 110000) is firmly established again.
A valid break below the yellow upward trend line will accelerate the decline, making the dead bulls lose their illusions; breaking below will repeatedly torment people, as bulls still have illusions.
Therefore, the yellow upward trend line and the black downward trend line are very important.
Unless it really stabilizes again on the black downward trend line, we will consider this trend.
A valid break below the yellow upward trend line can negate this trend.
<7> After dropping to 100262.27-99520.27-98778.28-98081.76, there is a small probability of a B wave breaking out to a new historical high; however, there is a high probability that the Y-XX wave will rebound to 102000-103000, after which the Y-Z wave will continue to drop to around 92000.
4-hour trend combination indicator pressure
The 4-hour trend combination indicator's long-short balance line is at 108383.
Gann angle lines and Gann box analysis
The bearish focus is on two purple-red Gann angle lines and the orange Gann angle line for resistance, while the blue Gann angle line and two green Gann angle lines provide support.
Dead bulls focus on the cyan Gann angle line for support; only by effectively holding it can the rise continue.
The Gann box on June 20 and June 26 is a change point.
What magic does stablecoin hold?
The GENIUS stablecoin bill has taken a crucial step forward, and the U.S. may welcome its first federal-level stablecoin regulatory framework! JD.com suddenly draws its sword! The U.S. releases stablecoins to save U.S. Treasuries; can it really save U.S. debt?
On the other side of the ocean, the Eastern giant JD.com, a major Chinese e-commerce player, has officially applied for a stablecoin license in major global economies, intending to issue the 'JD Coin' pegged to the U.S. dollar! Why are stablecoins being rushed for by various countries? What charm do stablecoins hold that can bring us benefits?
The U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS stablecoin bill and JD.com's application for a stablecoin license reflect a dual focus on stablecoin regulation and application globally. The following analyzes the deeper logic of this phenomenon from three dimensions:
1. Can the U.S. stablecoin bill save U.S. debt?
There is short-term structural support, but the long-term effect is questionable.
Stablecoin issuers have become an important source of incremental funds in the U.S. Treasury market. Data shows that in 2024, stablecoin issuers purchased about $40 billion of short-term U.S. Treasuries, exceeding holdings from countries like Switzerland. For example, Tether, the issuer of USDT, purchased $33.1 billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2024, with $7 billion of net profit coming from U.S. Treasury investment returns. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen predicts that stablecoins may create up to $2 trillion in demand for U.S. Treasuries in the coming years, providing crucial support for the U.S. Treasury market currently facing selling pressure.
However, this support has significant limitations:
Maturity mismatch risk: Stablecoin issuers primarily hold short-term government bonds (such as treasury bills within 3 months), while the current debt pressure in the U.S. is concentrated on medium- and long-term bonds. In May 2025, the auction yield for 20-year U.S. Treasuries exceeded 5%, and the yield for 30-year bonds approached a 20-year high. The short-term allocation of stablecoins is unlikely to alleviate the long-term financing pressure.
Dollar credit binding risk: The stability of stablecoins relies on dollar credit. If the dollar experiences fluctuations due to fiscal deficits or geopolitical risks, stablecoin holders may redeem in large volumes, leading to the sale of reserve assets (such as U.S. Treasuries). In May 2025, the Trump administration's tax cuts raised market concerns about U.S. Treasury credit, causing the yield on 10-year Treasuries to rise to 4.5%. This risk may be amplified as the scale of stablecoins increases.
Regulatory arbitrage space: The bill allows stablecoin issuers to leverage through repurchase agreements, money market funds, etc., which may create 'shadow banking' risks. For instance, Tether amplifies profits through repurchase transactions, and its reserve assets include risk assets such as commercial paper. This operation may trigger chain reactions during market fluctuations.
2. Why is JD.com taking the lead in stablecoin layout?
The dual strategy of breaking through cross-border payments and ecological expansion
JD.com's stablecoin strategy is deeply tied to its overseas business expansion. Currently, JD's international business faces pain points such as high cross-border payment costs (traditional SWIFT fees range from 3% to 5%) and long settlement cycles (an average of 3-5 days). The technical characteristics of stablecoins can reduce cross-border payment costs by 90%, shortening settlement times to within 10 seconds, which is particularly important for JD.com, which handles millions of cross-border transactions daily.
The specific implementation path has become apparent:
Sandbox testing phase: JD's stablecoin has entered the second phase of sandbox testing by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, covering test scenarios such as cross-border payments, investment transactions, and retail payments. For example, in the JD Hong Kong and Macau payment scenario, users can settle payments instantly using stablecoins without the need to exchange foreign currency.
Compliance system construction: JD Coin Chain Technology has cooperated with leading compliant exchanges and plans to issue stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar and Hong Kong dollar through licensed platforms. Hong Kong's (Stablecoin Ordinance Draft) requires issuers to maintain 100% reserve assets for isolated custody and accept annual audits, providing JD with a replicable compliance model.
Ecological synergy effect: Stablecoins can form a closed loop with JD's logistics and supply chain finance. For example, cross-border suppliers can quickly settle payments using JD stablecoins while utilizing JD Digital's blockchain platform for accounts receivable financing, reducing capital turnover costs.
3. Why have stablecoins become the focus of global strategic rivalry?
The contest for the high ground of digital financial infrastructure
The core value of stablecoins lies in reconstructing the payment and settlement system. Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that the efficiency of cross-border payments with stablecoins is 100 times higher than traditional methods, and costs are reduced by more than 10 times. This disruptive innovation is reshaping the global financial landscape:
Monetary sovereignty game
The U.S. has incorporated stablecoins into the dollar system through the GENIUS Act, requiring issuers to hold dollars or U.S. Treasuries as reserves, effectively turning stablecoins into extensions of 'digital dollars'. This move could consolidate the dollar's dominant position in cross-border payments, hedging against challenges such as the internationalization of the renminbi.
Hong Kong's (Stablecoin Ordinance Draft) paves the way for offshore renminbi stablecoins. For example, the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin HKDR planned by Standard Chartered Bank can collaborate with the mainland digital renminbi to promote the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade.
Financial disintermediation and regulatory reconstruction
Stablecoins bypass the traditional bank account system to achieve peer-to-peer payments, potentially diverting deposits from commercial banks. By 2024, about 30% of Circle's USDC reserves will be commercial bank deposits, and this 'disintermediation' trend forces banks to accelerate their digital transformation.
The differences in regulatory frameworks are forming new competitive barriers. The EU's MiCA Act requires algorithmic stablecoins to hold 300% excess reserves, while Hong Kong sets a capital threshold of HKD 25 million. These rules will impact the global layout of stablecoins.
Technical standard discourse power
The underlying technology of stablecoins (such as blockchain consensus mechanisms and smart contracts) has become the focus of competition among countries. JD.com has chosen Ethereum as the issuance public chain, while JPMorgan's JPMD stablecoin is based on its own blockchain Kinexys. The competition between different technical routes may determine the future infrastructure of digital finance.
The dilemma of balancing privacy protection and anti-money laundering is highlighted. The Hong Kong regulations require stablecoin transactions to occur on licensed platforms to achieve on-chain traceability, while the U.S. bill sets strict privacy standards for tech giants issuing stablecoins. This difference may lead to increased compliance costs for cross-border transactions.
4. Future challenges and trends
Regulatory coordination dilemma: There are differences in the regulatory frameworks of the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong. For example, the U.S. prohibits non-financial enterprises from issuing stablecoins, while Hong Kong allows tech companies to apply for licenses. This fragmented regulation may hinder the global circulation of stablecoins, leading to compliance arbitrage.
Technical risk exposure: Issues such as smart contract vulnerabilities and private key management errors have not yet been fully resolved. In 2024, a certain stablecoin project experienced a value collapse due to code defects, triggering market panic.
Geopolitical shocks: If the U.S. incorporates stablecoins into financial sanctions tools, it may prompt other countries to accelerate the issuance of local currency stablecoins. For instance, Russia has planned to issue a stablecoin pegged to the ruble to circumvent SWIFT restrictions.
Summary: Stablecoins are moving from marginal innovation to the core of global finance. The U.S. is consolidating the dollar's hegemony through legislation, while companies like JD.com are breaking through cross-border payment bottlenecks, and the competition for regulatory dominance among countries will reshape the digital financial order. The ultimate form of this game may depend on the balance between technological innovation and institutional design—both releasing the efficiency dividends of stablecoins and preventing systemic risks.
💡 Note: Investing is like walking in the dark; always carry the lantern of 'risk awareness' to stay away from the fog of leverage and refuse to blindly chase the light.
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