Macroeconomic Storm: The Federal Reserve's 'hawkish pause' and the crypto market's contrasting extremes.
In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot shows a significant reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 to 25 basis points, completely disappointing the market's anticipated 'dovish turn'. This 'hawkish pause' has led to widespread pressure on risk assets, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below the support level of $103,000, and over $1.5 billion in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, resulting in heavy losses for bulls. However, beneath the surface, undercurrents are stirring: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $412 million in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $267 million, signaling that institutional funds are buying against the trend.
Economic Perspective: Under expectations of tightening liquidity, the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets has increased, but the long-term scarcity logic remains unchanged. The current market is experiencing a 'expectation difference game' — institutions are laying out ETFs at low prices, while retail investors are panic selling, resulting in a fierce showdown between 'smart money' and 'emotional traders'.
Bitcoin: Is $100,000 a chasm or a springboard?
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin is currently oscillating around $103,500. If it stabilizes above the key support of $100,800 on the 4-hour chart, there is still a possibility of a rebound to the pressure at $106,000; if it breaks down, it may trigger panic selling. The options market bets on a return to $100,000 by the end of June, but one must beware of the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' trap.
On-chain Data: Over 20,000 Bitcoin addresses hold a value of over $10 million, with the whale holding ratio reaching 9.43%. The trend of institutionalization provides a long-term price floor.
Inspiring Short Story:
Wall Street trader James once increased his position against the trend when Bitcoin plummeted to $30,000 in 2024, with peers mocking him as 'crazy'. A year later, Bitcoin broke through $100,000, and James's persistence turned into millions in profit. Now, he stares at the $100,000 mark on his screen, murmuring: 'History always repeats itself, but most people only remember fear.'
Ethereum, Solana, Meme Coin: Who will lead the rebound?
Ethereum (ETH): Weak oscillation around $2,500 in the short term, with a concentration of short liquidations at $2,570. Technical upgrades (such as Dencun) and the RWA (real-world assets) track may be the key to breakthrough.
Solana (SOL): The VanEck Solana spot ETF has been registered with DTCC (code VSOL); if approved, SOL may replicate the explosive rally seen before Bitcoin ETF approval.
Meme Coin: Short-term surges of Lambo, FOMO, etc., on the AVAX chain, with funds pouring into ecological projects; HYPE tokens have gained significant leverage from whales, but high volatility is only suitable for risk-tolerant investors.
Policy Dividend: The stablecoin bill is enacted, and traditional capital accelerates entry.
The U.S. Senate passed the (GENIUS Act), providing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, eliminating compliance uncertainty. Traditional institutions such as JPMorgan and Ant Group are accelerating their layout in on-chain finance, further reinforcing Bitcoin's reserve property as 'digital gold'.
General Investor Strategy: How to navigate through the fog of volatility?
Bitcoin: Keep a close eye on the $100,800 support; a breakthrough at $106,000 could allow for light long positions; consider regular investments in ETFs or whale holding cost zones ($95,000 - $100,000) for the long term.
Solana: Lay out positions at dips under ETF expectations, with stop-loss set at the lower bound of the support range.
Meme CoinSmall position gaming ecological hotspot, avoid All-in.
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(This article does not constitute investment advice; the market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.)