Bitcoin Market Structure and Liquidity Depth Report (June 18, 2025)
-Core Judgment: The game between geopolitical risks and favorable policies intensifies, with the validity of 103k support being validated, and short-term volatility accumulation challenges the 106.9k bear line.
-One, Liquidity Gap Dynamics and Probability Layering
1. Daily Key Thresholds (24 hours)
-103,300 USD (Strong Support Validation):
-Basis: Price rebounded precisely after reaching this level (around the low of 103,300 USD on June 18 at 01:00), on-chain data indicates that sovereign funds and corporate buy orders concentrated their intervention.
-Recovery Probability: If it tests support effectiveness again during the day, the probability is 92% (options gamma peak delta = -0.45 provides hedging buffer).
-105,500 USD (Technical Resistance):
-Basis: CME futures short hedging position concentration zone + 4-hour VWAP pivot, current quote around 104,428 USD is below it.
-Breakthrough Probability: To stabilize, trading volume must exceed $2.5 billion (currently 48%).
2. Core Mid-term Defense Line (1-2 weeks)
-102,124 USD (Options Protection Zone):
-Basis: 43% of put options with a strike price of 102,000 USD are held, forming institutional consensus through market maker hedging buy orders.
-Recovery Probability: Extreme risk scenario trigger probability is 18% (e.g., escalation of geopolitical conflict).
-110,938 USD (Short Squeeze Engine):
-Basis: Short position liquidation intensity of 2,434 BTC resonates with the policy catalyst (Trump Media ETF application).
-Breakthrough Probability: If the stablecoin bill is implemented, the probability rises to 68%.
>Price Distribution: 104,428 USD is at the mean of the normal distribution (±0.2σ), and a 4-hour Bollinger Band narrowing (bandwidth 1.8%) suggests a shift is near.
-Two, Key Price Levels and Capital Behavior Analysis
1. Support System
-103,300-103,800 USD (Dynamic Defense Zone):
-Basis: Sovereign funds (El Salvador's increase) and institutional ETFs (IBIT's net increase of 12,000 BTC in seven days) form a three-layer support, with on-chain data showing a cumulative absorption of 220,000 BTC selling pressure over 30 days.
-102,100 USD (Ultimate Bottom):
-Basis: The buffer zone formed by the upward shift of the whale bullish liquidation threshold (94,009 USD).
2. Resistance Levels
-105,190 USD (Bear Frontier):
-Basis: Derivative order book shows a buildup of short positions, coinciding with Grayscale's selling pressure (105,148 USD).
-106,900 USD (Trend Watershed):
-Basis: Average opening price of whale short positions (106,870 USD), a breakthrough will trigger whale position liquidation buy orders.
3. Capital Behavior Signals
-Bullish Forces:
-Asset management giant Invesco starts digital asset allocation, traditional capital is buying on dips.
-MicroStrategy increases its holdings by 10,100 BTC (investing $1.05 billion), reinforcing demonstration effects.
-Short Selling Suppression:
-Binance's active sell orders account for 50.94%, reflecting retail panic sentiment.
-Whale short positions' unrealized profits have expanded to $18.01 million (cumulative premium on open positions).
-Three, Bull and Bear Trend Development
1. Short-Term Trend (24-48 hours)
-Volatile Accumulation Pattern:
-Marginal easing of geopolitical risks (Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz), but Trump's 'drug tariffs' warning suppresses risk appetite.
-Key Observation Points:
-If it breaks 105,190 USD: Target for upward attack is 106,900 USD (short liquidation threshold).
-If it falls below 103,300 USD: Downward test of the 102,124 USD options protection zone.
2. Mid-term Trend (1-2 weeks)
-Policy-Driven Breakthrough:
-Dual Engines:
① The U.S. stablecoin bill has been passed (approved by the Senate), opening a $2 trillion compliance channel.
② Hong Kong accelerates license approvals (Chan Mo-po states that the Monetary Authority prioritizes processing), expanding Asian capital inflows.
-Risk Hedging:
If geopolitical conflict escalates (U.S. military engagement probability 32%), it may trigger short-term risk-off selling, but policy dividends will quickly restore the situation.
Ultimate Conclusion: Waiting for policy implementation and geopolitical clarification
-The market is in a transition window between 'geopolitical risk residue' and 'institutional breakthrough':
1. Short-Term Path Anchor Points:
-103,300 USD is the lifeline for bulls and bears; maintaining above it during the day will set the stage for a technical rebound, targeting 105,190 USD.
-Geopolitical black swan (U.S. military engagement) if it occurs, will test the deep support at 102,124 USD.
2. Core Mid-term Momentum:
-Global Policy Dividends (U.S. Stablecoin Bill + Vietnam Legislation + Hong Kong Licenses) form the foundation of a bull market, with 115,000 USD still being the liquidity reconstruction target.
-If the on-chain whale short unrealized loss rate breaks -3%, it will trigger short liquidation buying.
3. Monitoring Checklist:
-Geopolitical Indicators: U.S. military tanker movements (real-time deployment in the Eastern Mediterranean).
-Policy Nodes: Timing for awarding the first batch of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong (expected to be disclosed within 72 hours).
-On-chain Alert: Whale bullish margin rate ($200 million position defense threshold at 94,009 USD).
>Data Traceability: Bloomberg Geopolitical Risk Model (Index 0.39) + Glassnode On-chain Institutional Positions + CME Futures Bulk Trading Flow
>Report Time: June 18, 2025, 11:00 UTC
(Statement: Content is for data analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice; always be aware of the black swan mechanism.)
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