SOL plummets into oversold territory! Strong buyer intervention, is a rebound imminent? Quickly seize key support levels
Currently, SOL is in an oversold state, with RSI (27.5) indicating severe overselling. The price is below MA200 (-4.62%) and the holding cost (-3.72%), while the Bollinger Band position (19.6%) is close to the lower band, indicating a high probability of a short-term rebound. However, the trading volume is sluggish (24-hour -2.73%, volume ratio 0.46), reflecting market caution, and the net outflow of contracts exacerbates the downside risk. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term, entering at 145.5 (a zone of dense buyer liquidity), with a stop loss at 144.0 (breaking below Bollinger Band support), targeting 150.0 (recent resistance), with a risk-reward ratio of 3.0. Risk: If it breaks below 144.0 or macroeconomic factors are unfavorable, the strategy fails; position ≤2%, avoid trading during low liquidity periods.
Technical Analysis
• Price Status: The Bollinger Band position at 19.6% indicates the price is near the lower band (144.68), signaling an oversold rebound; MA200 (153.71) and holding cost (152.27) exert pressure above, with deviations of -4.62%/-3.72% highlighting weakness.
• Market Strength: 24-hour trading volume has shrunk (volume ratio 0.46), and the price drop on reduced volume suggests weakened selling pressure; open interest increased by 1.22% over 24 hours, but the net outflow of contracts (-299k) shows capital withdrawal; the order book shows high buy pressure (buy-sell ratio 2.19), with buyer liquidity concentrated at 145.0-146.0 (total value 1.26M USDT), providing strong support; no significant news impact, the market has digested the recent downward trend.
• Key Levels: Support at 145.0 (liquidity concentration), resistance at 150.0 (starting point of the seller's area); the total value of near-term buy orders at 3.04M USDT far exceeds sell orders at 2.71M, creating a capital barrier.
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in the mid-bottom area of a bear market, with a 7-day price drop of 11.21%, the RSI being oversold suggests a potential short-term rebound, but the trend has not reversed.
Trading Strategy
• Entry Point: 145.5 (zone of dense buyer liquidity, low risk)
• Stop Loss Point: 144.0 (if it breaks below the lower Bollinger band, the trend worsens)
• Target Level: 150.0 (resistance level and psychological barrier)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.0
Risk Warning
• Market Risk: Continuous net outflow of contracts, insufficient trading volume, or macro events (such as regulation) may exacerbate declines.
• Conditions for Strategy Failure: If the price falls below 144.0, stop loss and reassess.
• Operational Note: Single trade risk ≤ 2% of total capital, avoid trading during low liquidity periods.
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