「Panic Selling Nearing the End! BTC Surges with Over-Sold Bounce Signal, Smart Money Stealthily Accumulating」
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band (27.74%), close to the oversold range, with a high probability of a short-term rebound.
• MA200: Current price is 2.43% below MA200 (106,870), deviation has not reached extremes, but pressure is evident.
• Holding Cost: 1.8% below the holding cost, most holders are at a loss, selling pressure is weakening.
2. Market Strength:
• Trading Volume: 24-hour volume has shrunk by 56% (ratio 0.44), decreasing volume indicates short-seller exhaustion.
• Open Interest: 24-hour open interest decreased by 3.99%, declining open interest suggests short positions are being liquidated.
• Long/Short Ratio: Long/Short ratio rose to 1.5056 (+2.3%), smart money is accumulating long positions on dips.
3. Key Price Levels:
• Support: 103,500 (large buy orders concentrated), 102,975 (Bollinger lower band).
• Resistance: 104,500 (dense selling liquidity zone), 106,180 (holding cost line).
• Order Book: Nearby buy orders valued at 24.07 million USD > sell orders 12.90 million USD, strong buy support.
Market Cycle
Currently in a mid-cycle pullback of a bull market, with a 12-month increase of 56.78% not altering the long-term trend, short-term adjustment (7-day drop of 5.46%) nearing the end.
Trading Strategy
Direction: Long (1-3 day rebound)
• Entry: 104,270 (current price) or break above 104,500 to chase long
• Stop Loss: 103,490 (1% below support)
• Target: 105,045 (first resistance), 106,180 (risk-reward ratio 2.47)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.47 (calculated at second target)
Risk Warning
1. A drop below 103,490 may accelerate decline to 102,975;
2. If the rebound lacks volume (volume ratio < 0.5), timely profit-taking is necessary;
3. Position size ≤ 2% of total capital, avoid low liquidity periods (UTC 0:00-4:00).
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Summary: Current BTC price is 104,272, technicals are oversold (RSI=28.8) combined with buy order support, high probability of rebound. It is recommended to take a light long position at the current price, stop loss at 103,490, targets at 105,045/106,180. Beware of ineffective rebounds without volume, strictly control position size!
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