ETH panic oversold! The resistance breakthrough at 2500 is imminent, seize the opportunity for a rebound, and FOMO sentiment is rising!
Currently, ETH is in an oversold state (RSI 35.63), with a price of 2498.2 below MA200 (2626) and holding cost (2584), but the order book shows strong buying pressure (buy-sell ratio 1.63x). The support level in the 2480-2486 area has dense liquidity, indicating a high probability of a short-term rebound. It is recommended to enter a long position at 2485, with a target of 2508, a stop loss at 2455, and a risk-reward ratio of 3.5:1. Risk: Continuous capital outflow, if it falls below 2455 or macro-negative news occurs, the strategy will fail; position ≤ 2%, avoid low liquidity periods.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status: Bollinger Band position 27.01% (near lower band 2455), indicating an oversold rebound opportunity; MA200 deviation -4.88% and holding cost deviation -3.33%, suggesting a deep price correction with potential mean reversion.
2. Market Strength: 24-hour trading volume ratio 0.48 (shrinking), price down 1.81% accompanied by decreased volume, showing weakened selling pressure; open interest decreased (24 hours -1.54%), smart money long-short ratio rose to 3.56 (bullish enhancement); no major news, the market has digested recent declines.
3. Key Support/Resistance: Support level 2480 (buy-side liquidity concentrated, total value 2.26 million USDT), resistance level 2508 (sell-side liquidity 3.87 million USDT); buy-sell pressure ratio 1.63x, but there are more sell orders in the nearby area (difference -1.55 million USDT), caution is needed for the breakthrough pressure at 2500; liquidity gap below 2455, if it breaks, it may accelerate the downward trend.
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in the mid-bear market bottom area, with prices continuously below MA200, down 11.31% over 7 days, but RSI oversold and signs of capital inflow suggest a possible short-term rebound.
Trading Strategy
• Entry Point: 2485 (buy-side liquidity dense area).
• Stop Loss Point: 2455 (Bollinger Band lower band).
• Target Point: 2508 (sell-side resistance area).
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.5 (calculated based on the long formula: (2508-2485)/(2485-2455)=23/30≈0.766, conditions met).
Risk Reminder: The main risk is net capital outflow (contract net flow -177k) and reduction in positions; if the price falls below 2455 or a black swan event occurs, stop loss immediately; control position within 2%, avoid low liquidity periods during Asian night.
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