Early Market Technical Analysis

The ascending triangle consolidation chart of Bitcoin was updated yesterday (4H). I deleted the relevant segments on the chart to make it clearer. You can see the price moved from 108900 to today’s 103300. (Interestingly, I drew a Fibonacci retracement, which accurately hit 0.886? Resonating with my online name? Resonating with the lower edge of the ascending triangle?) The spike reached the end of the triangle, but the body closed within the triangle,

‌AB segment uptrend and C point retracement‌

The current price retraced from 108900 to 103300, reaching the 0.886 Fibonacci level of the AB segment, indicating technical support.

Although the lower shadow pierced the end of the triangle, the body closed within the pattern, reflecting effective bullish defense.

‌Harmonic Pattern Validation‌

If the C point quickly rebounds after retracing 0.886 of AB and stabilizes above point A (above 103666), it may indicate a bullish shakeout, with a high probability of trend continuation.

Caution is needed regarding the position of point B: if point B is located at 38.2%-50% of the larger cycle XA leg, it may form a bullish bat pattern.

‌Breakout Signal Confirmation‌

‌Bullish Conditions‌: The price must break out of the upper trend line of the triangle with increased volume (currently around 105500), targeting the previous high of 108900–110003.

‌Bearish Risk‌: If the body falls below the low of point C (103300), the ascending triangle will be invalidated, or it may test the 100000 support level.

💡 ‌Summary‌: The 0.886 retracement level resonates with the ascending triangle; we need to wait for the body to confirm the breakout direction. Currently, the trend is inclined to continue.