Here are the key details about the current FOMC meeting (June 17–18, 2025), based on the latest information:
⏰ 1. Meeting Schedule & Key Events
- Dates: June 17–18, 2025 (today and tomorrow) .
- Policy Statement Release: Wednesday, June 18, at 2:00 p.m. ET .
- Chair Powell's Press Conference: Wednesday, June 18, at 2:30 p.m. ET .
📉 2. Interest Rate Decision
- The Fed is highly likely to maintain rates at the current range of 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged since December 2024 .
- Market odds of a cut are near 0% for June and only 13% for July .
📊 3. Focus: "Dot Plot" Projections
- This meeting includes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or "dot plot," revealing Fed officials' rate forecasts for 2025–2026 .
- Key expectations:
- Fewer rate cuts in 2025: Likely reduced from two cuts (projected in March) to just one cut by year-end .
- Higher inflation: Forecasts may rise to 3.0%–3.3% (from 2.8%) due to tariff impacts .
- Slower growth: GDP projections could be downgraded to 1.3% (from 1.7%) .
🏛️ 4. Political Pressure & Uncertainty
- President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chair Powell, demanding "a full percentage point cut" and calling him a "numbskull" for resisting .
- New tariffs and fiscal policies are complicating the Fed's outlook, creating "uncomfortable purgatory" between inflation risks and growth concerns .
📈 5. Market Impact
- Stocks: A shift to one 2025 cut could trigger a ~1% S&P 500 sell-off; holding at two cuts may lift markets .
- Bonds: Futures traders price in a 60% chance of a cut by September, with 88% odds of at least two cuts by December .
🗓️ Upcoming 2025 FOMC Meetings
Table: Key remaining meetings this year :
| Meeting Dates | Special Notes |
|-------------------------|--------------------------------------------|
| July 29–30 | No dot plot or press conference scheduled |
| September 16–17* | Includes dot plot & press conference |
| October 28–29 | No dot plot or press conference |
| December 9–10* | Includes dot plot & press conference |
💡 Key Takeaway
Today's meeting sets the stage for future policy amid high uncertainty. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the dot plot revisions and Powell's commentary on tariffs, inflation, and political pressure will drive market sentiment. The Fed's next realistic window for cuts is September or December .