#美联储FOMC会议
Latest Developments of the Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (as of June 17, 2025)
The Federal Reserve convened the latest FOMC meeting as scheduled on **Tuesday, June 17, 2025 (Eastern Time)**. This is typically a two-day meeting, with decisions announced after the meeting concludes.
1. **Meeting Commencement:**
* The Federal Reserve has confirmed that the FOMC meeting will officially start at **9 AM on Tuesday (June 17) Eastern Time**.
* This is the last interest rate meeting for the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year.
2. **Market Expectations and Interest Rate Decision:**
* There is widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will **continue to keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%** at this meeting. This will mark the third consecutive time that rates remain unchanged.
* Despite some recent weak inflation data, the ongoing uncertainty brought about by President Trump's trade policies (such as the latest adjustments to tariffs) has complicated the inflation outlook, leading the Federal Reserve to remain cautious regarding interest rate cuts.
* The Federal Reserve has also emphasized in previous meetings that the current monetary policy stance is suitable for the current environment, capable of addressing potential economic changes while maintaining flexibility, with no urgent need for rate cuts at this time.
3. **Adjustment of Balance Sheet Reduction (Quantitative Tightening, QT) Pace:**
* The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
* Since **April 2025**, the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasuries has been **reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion**, while the MBS monthly redemption cap remains at $35 billion.
* This slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction is typically interpreted by the market as an effort to maintain tightening while avoiding excessive shocks to market liquidity, aiming to ensure the effectiveness of the “adequate reserves” framework. Goldman Sachs has previously predicted that this balance sheet reduction will have an overall impact of about 25 basis points on the 10-year Treasury yield.