#FOMCMeeting The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is convening today, June 17, 2025, with the policy statement and press conference scheduled for June 18 at 2:00 PM ET (11:00 PM PKT). The current federal funds rate stands at 4.25%–4.50%, and market expectations suggest a 91% probability of no rate change during this meeting .

Key Economic Indicators

Inflation: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was at 2.6% year-over-year in March 2025, slightly above the Fed's 2% target. Short-term inflation expectations have risen to 6.5% due to tariff-related concerns .

Labor Market: The unemployment rate is at 4.2%, with strong job growth, adding 177,000 jobs in April .

Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment has declined by 32.4% year-over-year, influenced by trade policy uncertainties .

Summary of Economic Projections (March 2025)

GDP Growth: Revised lower to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.

Unemployment Rate: Projected at 4.4% in 2025, with a slight increase from previous forecasts.

Inflation: Core PCE inflation forecasted at 2.7% in 2025, slightly above the previous projection .

Market Expectations

Analysts anticipate that the Fed will adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, with potential rate cuts later in 2025, possibly starting in July or September, depending on economic data and inflation trends .

Political Considerations

President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and suggested potential replacements. Despite political pressure, the Fed remains committed to its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, emphasizing a data-driven, non-political stance .