#FOMCMeeting

📉 The Fed is on pause: June meeting without surprises, but with a hint of worry

🔍 What you need to know before Wednesday and why the “dots” are more important than the rate

🪙 Interest rate — unchanged

The Federal Reserve System of the USA is unlikely to change the rate at the June meeting: 4.25%–4.50% remains with us. The reason is simple — inflation seems to be easing, and the labor market is still breathing. So the Fed can afford to wait.

📉 The rate is not the main intrigue. The main thing is the “dots”

On Wednesday, the market will be watching not so much the rate, but the updated dot plot — the forecast map of the Fed members themselves. In spring, they still hoped for 2 rate cuts in 2025, but since then a lot has changed:

— Trump’s tariffs,

— sticky inflation,

— deterioration in economic sentiment.

Now the market is ready to accept even one cut as a gift. And if there are many dots with zeros — we expect a “hawkish storm” in the markets.

📦 The economy is holding up for now, but…

CPI — softer, labor market — healthy, but:

• consumers are anxious,

• businesses are being cautious,

• tariffs have not hit yet — but are on the way.

The Fed will wait for the “pain to manifest” in the statistics.