#美联储FOMC会议 Federal Reserve Internal Disagreement

In the March meeting, there were significant divergences among the 19 FOMC members regarding the interest rate cut path: 4 supported no cuts until 2025, 4 supported one cut (25 basis points), 9 supported two cuts, and 2 supported three cuts. The median of the dot plot maintains the prediction of a 50 basis point cut within the year, but the proportion of members supporting fewer cuts has increased.

Market Pricing and Risks

The futures market indicates that traders expect a cumulative cut of 75 basis points (3 times) by 2025, but the probability of a cut at the June meeting is only 34%, increasing to 70% in September. If the Federal Reserve delays action, it may exacerbate stock market volatility, putting pressure on high-leverage sectors such as technology stocks and real estate.

IV. External Risks and Policy Challenges

Tariff and Supply Chain Impacts

Trump's imposition of a 34% tariff on China has led to a general rise in import prices, increasing the annual expenditure for average American households by $3,800 to $5,000. JPMorgan estimates that tariffs could raise core PCE inflation by 1.5 to 2 percentage points, intensifying the risk of 'stagflation'.

Debt and Liquidity Concerns

In 2025, $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature, with interest payments accounting for 20% of fiscal spending. If the rate cuts are insufficient, the cost of extending debt may squeeze fiscal stimulus space. Additionally, the banking system has floating losses of $2 trillion, nearing the capital level, putting financial stability to the test.

V. Future Policy Outlook

Key Signals from the June Meeting

The market is focused on whether the FOMC meeting on May 6-7 will release forward guidance for rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve acknowledges that the downside risks to the economy outweigh inflationary pressures, it may pave the way for a rate cut in June; if it emphasizes 'data dependence', then cuts may be delayed until September.

Long-term Policy Framework

The Federal Reserve has initiated a five-year review of its monetary policy framework, focusing on assessing the definition of full employment and flexibility in the inflation target. The 2020 'average inflation targeting' framework may be adjusted to address structural changes resulting from supply chain reconfiguration and the retreat of globalization.