#美联储FOMC会议 Below is the key information整理关于 the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (held from June 17 to 18, 2025):

1. Meeting Background and Interest Rate Expectations

This meeting is the last interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year. The market generally expects to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, which will be the fourth consecutive time since last December that no action is taken. The short-term policy outlook is stable, but updates to the economic outlook (SEP) and the dot plot may release more policy clues.

Although recent weakness in the labor market and cooling inflation have led some investors to anticipate a rate cut in July, institutions such as JPMorgan believe that this meeting may release hawkish signals, with the dot plot possibly indicating only one rate cut this year (down from two cuts predicted in March), reflecting the Federal Reserve's balance between economic slowdown and potential inflation risks.

2. Policy Focus and Divergence

Inflation and Trade Policy: Powell may emphasize the importance of “stabilizing long-term inflation expectations,” especially the need to be wary of the risk of potential tariff measures raising inflation.

Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts: The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel may influence Federal Reserve decisions through oil price fluctuations. If oil prices continue to soar (e.g., to $130/barrel), it could push inflation up to 6%, but some economists believe that economic weakness and recession risks may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier (e.g., moving from December to November).

3. Market Reaction and Technical Signals

The US dollar index shows a downward trend, currently around 98, and the narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest that volatility may increase, with bears still in control.

International oil prices have recently shown significant fluctuations (e.g., last Friday saw the largest increase in three years), but the actual impact of the conflict on the rate cut timetable needs to be observed over the weeks, and in the short term, the Federal Reserve may remain cautious.

4. Follow-Up Focus

Press Conference Statements: Powell's comments on inflation, employment, and geopolitical risks will be the focus.

Dot Plot Adjustments: If the expectation for rate cuts this year further diminishes, it may strengthen the hawkish stance.

In summary, the core contradiction of this meeting lies in balancing the pressures of economic slowdown with the risks of potential inflation rebound, while geopolitical conflicts add uncertainty to the policy path.