Key Points of Macroeconomic Fundamentals:
Geopolitical Risks Intensify, Pressuring Risk Assets: Early this morning, an explosion occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran, significantly escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This event has intensified market sell-off pressure on high-risk assets, causing safe-haven funds to flow rapidly into traditional refuges like gold, government bonds, and the yen. As a result, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rapid short-term decline.
Bank of Japan Policy Expectations: Goldman Sachs' latest analysis indicates that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current monetary policy, with the next rate hike anticipated to occur next year.
Ethereum ETF Staking Options Pending: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on the staking feature of the Franklin spot Ethereum ETF proposal.
Short-Term Impact: This delayed decision has put pressure on the Ethereum and related ETF markets in the short term, and market volatility may increase. Some institutional capital will adopt a wait-and-see attitude, leading to an overall decline in market risk appetite.
Medium to Long-Term Outlook: If the SEC ultimately approves the staking option, it will open up new passive income channels for institutional investors. This is expected to significantly stimulate institutional investment interest, attracting more stable and larger incremental funds into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC):
Yesterday's analysis emphasized that the uncertainty brought by geopolitical conflicts will continue to weaken the coherence of market trends, making it difficult to secure profits in such brief upward movements. Any escalation of the situation will pose significant pressure on high-risk assets like the crypto market.
Daily Chart: Yesterday, the price briefly approached $109,000 but rapidly fell nearly $3,000 due to the escalation of geopolitical events in the morning, ultimately forming a bullish candle with a long upper shadow. The current price remains above key moving averages, exhibiting a three consecutive bullish candle pattern with the K-line combination turning upwards, indicating the possibility of testing resistance in the $109,000 - $110,000 area again today.
4-Hour Chart: The steady upward trend that started yesterday morning lasted for about 24 hours before a large bearish candle appeared this morning. Although the current price has rebounded from the low (forming a lower shadow), the overall upward structure in the smaller time frame has not been completely broken. It is expected that a slight upward trend may continue during the Asian session.
Intraday Strategy: Key pressure to watch above is in the $109,000 - $110,000 area, consider pullback opportunities when the time is right; the key support area below is located at $106,000 - $105,000.
Ethereum (ETH):
Daily Chart: Yesterday's price surged before falling back, forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating market skepticism about effectively breaking through the upper resistance. In the absence of further positive catalysts (such as the approval of a staking ETF), it is challenging for the price to break through directly. In the short term, it is more likely to maintain a sideways consolidation or retest the lower support to build momentum. From a long-term trend perspective, the key upward trend line (illustrated by the blue line) remains intact and unbroken, suggesting a long-term bullish pattern, with the current pullback seen as a healthy technical correction.
4-Hour Chart: The large bearish candle this morning has mostly engulfed yesterday's gains. Although there is a rebound now, it is important to note that during yesterday's upward movement, a dense trading zone was formed in the $2630 - $2660 range, which is expected to pose significant resistance to the current rebound.
Intraday Strategy: The primary focus above is the resistance area at $2630 - $2660; key support below is noted in the $2580 - $2550 range. The short-term structural bottom can be referenced around $2500.
Altcoins:
Current market performance clearly shows that during the synchronized pullback, the decline of Ethereum and altcoins is generally greater than that of Bitcoin. This is mainly due to the sharp decline in market risk appetite under geopolitical risk events, making high-beta altcoins difficult to attract capital.
The rebound trend is usually weak in sustainability, with low profit effects for participating in such weak rebounds, facing significant pullback risks, resulting in limited unrealized gains that are difficult to effectively realize.
Current Strategy Recommendation: The best strategy is to remain cautious and avoid falling into FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). Patiently wait for geopolitical tensions to ease and market liquidity to improve, which would be a better opportunity to capture potential market rhythms.
Risk Warning:
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment decisions require extreme caution. The views expressed in this article are merely interpretations and sharing by analysts based on current market information and do not constitute any investment advice.