Last night, it was clearly indicated that BTC needs to pull back to 107,507+, and ETH needs to pull back to 2585+. Short positions should be opened in the 2665-2719 range. Last night, ETH peaked at 2680, and BTC peaked at 108,973. The low long position for ETH at 2542 was accurately hit, but BTC did not trigger. Correct timing leads to profit; incorrect timing leads to continuous losses. Do not act impulsively or blindly!
BTC
The rise in BTC price has led to an increase in turnover rate. In the past two days, profit-taking investors who bought the dip are the main ones exiting, while early investors remain calm, confirming recent data: the majority of investors are insensitive to short-term price fluctuations. The decline in BTC reserves on exchanges indicates that most people are more optimistic about the long-term trend.
Regarding support levels, there are still over 2 million BTC in reserves in the $93,000 to $98,000 range. The price increase has not triggered a large exit, and investor sentiment remains stable. Starting tomorrow, macro data (such as Thursday's dot plot) will be a key test.
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows that the short-term candlestick rose and then fell back, precisely testing the moving average before rebounding from the bottom. This is clearly intentional position washing. The current MACD is contracting, and it may turn upward, potentially challenging $110,000. Pay attention to the support level of 106,000 during the short-term pullback.
ETH
In the past month, the Ethereum spot ETF has seen daily net inflows, but the price of Ethereum has not risen significantly, which can be attributed to two reasons.
1. The data shows errors
2. There are large whales or retail investors continuously offloading, which has offset net inflows.
Today, pay attention to ETH support at 2466-2490, 2403, 2343. Resistance at 2719. Key points are 2542 (confirmation of intra-day double bottom), 2665 (validity of the breakout).
Today, we need to observe whether 2542 confirms support and whether it can break through 2665 to set a new high. Due to the situation in the Middle East, the trend needs to be gradually confirmed. For some key resistance levels, signal opportunities are given; if you should act, do so with light positions and trial and error!
The previous altcoin season did not arrive because the on-chain market absorbed speculative funds!
Now that the on-chain market is inactive, if the altcoin season does not arrive, there will really be no reason! Since 2025, the total amount of stablecoins has continued to grow; some of this liquidity should flow into the market, right? I am now just hoping that $BTC can fluctuate for two months and then hit a new high, bringing along a small surge in altcoins, three weeks will be enough!
The market value of altcoins has fallen for six consecutive weeks, approaching previous lows. Whether the large cycle converging triangle pattern can be established depends on the next 3-4 weeks. If the weekly chart shows higher lows and higher highs, the altcoin season will have a chance! If it breaks below the trend line, we may have to wait until 2026...
According to the Financial Times, Sun Yuchen's Tron plans to go public in the U.S. through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment.
After the success, the new company will be renamed Tron Inc., becoming the first U.S. public company focused on holding TRX. At the same time, sources say Eric Trump, son of Donald Trump, will join the senior management of Tron Inc., while Sun Yuchen will serve as an advisor to SRM to reduce U.S. regulatory sensitivity.
Although Eric Trump denies involvement, market enthusiasm remains high. Meanwhile, SRM's stock (yesterday) continued its upward trend, closing at $9.19, soaring 533% in a single day.
One good news and one bad news: The good news is that the altcoin season has arrived! The bad news is in the U.S.-Cuba...
