Labubu Price Crash: Bubble Burst or Market Correction?
Recently, Labubu, a popular IP under Pop Mart, has experienced dramatic price fluctuations, going from extreme premiums where the dolls were hard to acquire to prices being slashed in the second-hand market, sparking heated discussions about its value. This turning point began on the evening of June 18, when Pop Mart's official mini-program unexpectedly restocked the 'High Energy Ahead' series of Labubu and opened the online pre-sale channel for the first time. This move quickly broke the previous supply-demand imbalance dominated by scalpers, leading to a collapse in second-hand market prices.
From Premium Frenzy to Price Avalanche
Previously, the Labubu series became a target for scalpers due to its limited release, with the second-hand price for complete blind boxes being inflated to 1500 to 2800 yuan, and the hidden variant 'The True Self' even reaching 4600 yuan.
However, after the official large-scale restock, the market supply surged, causing the buyback price for complete boxes to plummet to 650-800 yuan, while the hidden variant prices also dropped by 38% to around 2800 yuan. On social media platforms, consumers shared screenshots of their successful orders, exclaiming, 'The official really released a lot this time.' Meanwhile, scalpers suffered heavy losses, with some losing tens of thousands of yuan in a single day, and the once lucrative myth was instantly shattered.
Market Divergence: Short-term Correction or Long-term Peak?
The price crash of Labubu has not only affected the second-hand market but has also shaken investors' confidence in Pop Mart's business model.
Some analysts have pointed out that Labubu may repeat the fate of other IPs like the Violent Bear, suggesting that its popularity cycle may be nearing an end. Historical data shows that the lifecycle of phenomenal IPs is often limited: the Violent Bear maintained its popularity for 2 years, while the highlights of IPs like (Black Myth: Wukong) and Nezha lasted only about 3 months. Additionally, the four major signals of a market peak—declining media hype, significant releases by manufacturers, price tier collapse, and liquidity stagnation—seem to be emerging in Labubu's case.
