#事件合约

Real trading record event contract, you all have woken up, it's time for me to sleep. The battle ended around 9 o'clock, and I stayed up a little longer to watch the market; this time I really couldn't hold on. Before going to bed, I want to share some scattered thoughts.

1. Before trading, there are two points that must be clarified: the market environment and price structure. I divide the market into two types of environments: strong market environment and weak market environment. In a strong market environment, betting on trends not being reversed is the way to go; only use a trend-following model for trades, going with the trend for big moves and against the trend for small moves.

In a weak market environment, betting on reversals is the approach; only use reversal models for trading. I believe that distinguishing the market environment using strength and weakness is more accurate than dividing it by trending or ranging markets. Regarding market structure, understanding the market structure clearly is a very important part; it can help you identify key price levels and recognize the validity of those levels. Market structure is divided into external market structure and internal market structure. If you cannot distinguish between internal and external market structures, you will often encounter situations where you feel it's a bearish trend and want to short, but the market is actually pulling in the bullish direction, indicating a wrong directional judgment. Internal and external market structures are similar to the concept of looking at the big picture while making small trades. These concepts cannot be clearly explained in just a few sentences, so let's save that for later and briefly discuss it for now.

Another fixed trading model or trading pattern, if there is no timely data support to verify the judgment, is akin to carving a boat to seek a sword; it doesn't completely deny it, but the win rate will not be very appropriate. This is also a problem many traders encounter. Relying solely on one or several fixed price movement patterns to test in the market will not yield a high probability of profit. Trading is not just about being able to draw charts; you shouldn't just see the patterns but also understand what lies behind those patterns, or whether there is some other support for the emergence of this pattern.