Comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin market trends on June 17, 2025

1. Short-term technicals: Intensified bull-bear struggle

Key support and resistance

The current Bitcoin price is fluctuating in the $107,000-$108,000 range. Short-term support is concentrated around $105,500-$106,000 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level and demand zone). If it breaks down, it may test the $103,000-$104,000 range (50-day moving average and previous platform consolidation area). The upper resistance is at $108,000-$110,000, especially near $108,181, where there exists a historically dense trading area and high liquidity selling pressure.

Technical indicator signals

Bullish signal: The daily MACD histogram continues to expand, the 4-hour moving averages (EMA20, 50, 100, 200) are in a bullish arrangement, and the price holds above the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($105,514).

Overbought risk: The 4-hour KDJ indicator's J value has broken 100, and the RSI is close to 70, indicating a short-term need for technical correction, but high market sentiment may delay the extent of the correction.

2. Market sentiment and fund flow

Institutional and retail behavior

Recently, institutional fund inflows have slowed, and retail trading enthusiasm has decreased, but long-term holders (such as addresses holding for more than a year) have not shown large-scale selling, indicating that market confidence remains. Some analysts suggest 'buying the dip', believing that the trend has not changed.

On-chain data

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's open contracts are concentrated in the $108,000-$110,000 range. A breakout could trigger liquidity sweeps, driving prices further up.

3. Impact of macro factors

Federal Reserve policy expectations

Today's market is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's June interest rate decision. Although U.S. CPI and PPI data fell short of expectations, the Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal (only one rate cut expected this year), and a strong dollar puts pressure on risk assets.

Geopolitics and regulation

Tensions in the Middle East are driving up risk aversion, but Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have yet to be widely recognized. The EU MiCA regulatory guidelines have entered the implementation stage, which may benefit compliant markets in the long run.

4. Key points and operational suggestions for today

Bull-bear dividing line

Bullish conditions: If the price holds above $107,500 and breaks out with volume above $108,181, it may challenge $110,000.

Bearish conditions: If it falls below $106,000, be wary of a pullback to the $104,000-$105,000 range.

Strategy reference

Bullish: Accumulate in batches as it pulls back to $106,400-$107,200, with a stop loss set below $105,000 and a target of $108,300-$109,000.

Bearish: Lightly short near $107,900-$108,200, with a stop loss above $109,000 and a target of $105,500.

5. Long-term trend outlook

Institutions predict that Bitcoin is expected to break its historical high before the end of the year (e.g., Coinbase maintains a bullish stance), but attention should be paid to macroeconomic policies, ETF fund inflows, and regulatory dynamics. The current technical structure is solid, and as long as it holds above $103,000, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged.

Risk warning: Strict stop-losses are required under high volatility to avoid excessive leverage. It is recommended to adjust strategies based on real-time data and market sentiment.