$BTC Beware of false breakouts $ETH Linked market trends will be clarified in the short term
Bitcoin's recent spike and fall has been quite brutal. After breaking through 110,000, it was immediately smashed down to 102,600 and is now stuck in a narrow range between 104,500 and 106,000.
The daily top divergence has not yet been fully digested, and the main force is clearly stalling for time. The 4-hour chart shows a decrease in volume during consolidation, indicating that the price is either building up for a breakout or is on the verge of crashing.
The 4-hour chart indicates that the price is repeatedly consolidating in the 104,500-106,000 range, which is a typical 'contracting triangle' pattern, suggesting a temporary standoff between bulls and bears.
However, from the 1-hour perspective, Bitcoin has shown a series of bullish candles after a brief correction, indicating signs of a breakout above the resistance level. The first target to watch above is the 106,800-107,000 resistance zone.
If there is a breakout with volume, it could aim to test 108,500, but if it cannot hold, the risk of a pullback will increase. The initial support to watch is at 104,500; if broken, it may retest around 102,500.
Ethereum's movement is correlated with Bitcoin, with the first rebound target resistance in the 2,630-2,650 range. If there is a strong breakout, it could look towards 2,680-2,700; however, if it faces repeated pressure, it is very likely to pull back to around 2,530-2,500, or even test the critical support at 2,480.
Market sentiment is quite delicate right now—the greed index is still high, but capital inflow is slowing down, clearly indicating a rhythm of retail investors picking up and large holders withdrawing.
The two positions of Bitcoin at 107,000 and Ethereum at 2,700 are likely to be repeatedly tested by the main force, with a high probability of false breakouts for stop hunting. Remember, liquidity is low in June, and any news could trigger a spike.
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