The US-China tariff war and real gunfire in the Middle East... yet Bitcoin shows surprising stability around the $105,000 mark.

Dual support from interest rate cut expectations and easing inflation

Certainty dividends from the shift in monetary policy

CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in Q3 has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of Bitcoin's term structure: the annualized premium for the futures contract expiring on June 15 has risen to 23%, a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data shows that the average increase in Bitcoin three months before the start of a rate cut cycle is 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.

Easing inflation

The core PCE price index in May decreased year-on-year to 2.8%, and the supply chain pressure index (GSCPI) fell to pre-pandemic levels. This weakens Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative but unexpectedly releases its 'growth-sensitive asset' attribute. MicroStrategy's latest financial report shows that the accounting treatment for corporate Bitcoin holdings has shifted from 'intangible assets' to 'strategic reserves', marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into the growth stock valuation framework.

Short-term price analysis

Bitcoin found support on Friday at the 50-day simple moving average ($103,604), but bulls struggled to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($106,028). This indicates a lack of buying interest at high levels.

According to the BTC/USDT daily chart, the 20-day moving average is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, which does not give a clear advantage to either bulls or bears. If buyers push the price above the 20-day moving average, the BTC/USDT pair may rise to the range of $110,530 to $111,980. It is expected that sellers will firmly defend this upper range, but if the bulls gain the upper hand, the pair could soar to $130,000.

Future Path Simulation: Summer Dormancy and Autumn Offensive

June to August: Period of consolidation and accumulation

The Fed's policy vacuum could cause Bitcoin to fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000. A key point to watch is whether the July FOMC meeting releases clear signals for interest rate cuts; technically, the 200-day moving average (currently at $96,500) will serve as strong support. The impulsive effects of geopolitical conflicts still exist.

September to November: Start of the main upward wave

Historical seasonal patterns show that the average increase in October reaches 21.89%. Combined with the Fed's potential first interest rate cut, Bitcoin may embark on a journey to hit $150,000. At that time, the peak maturity of U.S. Treasuries ($6.5 trillion) may force the Fed to expand its balance sheet, and the secondary release of U.S. dollar liquidity will become the best catalyst. The options market has seen a significant accumulation of call options expiring in December with a strike price of $140,000.

In the long term, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract over $200 billion in traditional asset management funds. Caution is needed for a 'Christmas pullback' after the highs in November, as historical data shows that the average drawdown during this phase in a bull market cycle is 18%.

Today's fear index is 61, still in a state of greed.

Said not to panic about the decline, boldly increase positions, and look, it’s about to rise back up, especially since this rebound is happening without any good news; if a heavy positive news comes out, it could break through new highs directly.

Currently, the inflow of whale and retail addresses for Bitcoin on Binance has dropped to a historical low. This indicates that both groups are inclined to hold their positions, suggesting there is still room for price growth. Retail sales data is expected on Tuesday, unemployment numbers on Wednesday, and the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday. The current market expects rates to remain unchanged, waiting to see how Powell will respond, whether he will soften his stance, and the expectations for rate cuts.