After last week's dramatic rise and fall, the weekend's fluctuations gave everyone a slight breather. However, this week is expected to be lively, with the FOMC announcing the interest rate decision and old Powell holding a monetary policy press conference early Thursday morning.
Last Friday's tensions between Israel and Iran made the already unstable cryptocurrency market even more turbulent. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant fluctuations, rapidly shrinking and testing the support level of 102652/2433 after failing to breach above 110000, while the market subsequently warmed up to 105000/2520, entering a range of upward movement.
Key News:
Iran has warned the US, UK, and France, simply put, 'I am ready to fight, and if anyone comes to help the other side, my firepower will be directed at them!'
Regarding the situation between Israel and Iran, Trump stated that both sides might reach a peace agreement but only after 'having fought enough to negotiate.'
The US monthly retail sales data released on Tuesday will become the focus. Investors hope to see whether tariffs have led to price increases, thereby putting pressure on consumer spending.
As the 90-day suspension period for a series of tariff measures by Trump ends on July 8, trade developments are likely to continue to make the market anxious.
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary.
Thursday 02:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
After four consecutive pauses in rate cuts, the patience of the Federal Reserve is testing the market nerves! It may provoke another attack from Trump. White House tariffs, Middle East conflicts, and employment data are all stirring the pot. The possible range for the 'dot plot' is unusually large this week.
However, policymakers have made it clear: before taking action, they need the White House to resolve major questions regarding tariffs, immigration, and taxation. At the same time, the impact of geopolitical issues on the global economy adds another layer of uncertainty. Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates until at least September.
Paul Eitelman, an analyst at Russell Investments, pointed out in a report that given the impact of tariffs and geopolitical risks, the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates throughout the summer.
Yumi believes that this month it is highly likely to maintain interest rates; a rate cut is expected in the second half of the year. It mainly depends on whether Powell's speech leans dovish or hawkish. If dovish, it would be a positive; conversely, if hawkish, it would be negative.
Thursday (June 19) June Festival: The New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day.
Friday 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes from the April monetary policy meeting.
The consensus is that the Bank of Japan will remain on hold next week. Nomura Securities stated that given the current state of tariff negotiations among countries and the lack of sufficient economic data on tariff impacts, 'We believe that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is unlikely to make any particularly new remarks on the economy and prices at the press conference unless an unexpected agreement is reached during the US-Japan summit planned for June 15-17.'
This week, geopolitical conflicts compounded by prolonged trade frictions create a chaotic and challenging situation. Whether major institutions and investors will flock to gold for safety or have more confidence in Bitcoin's development prospects is also a cause for concern.
The market has accepted that there will be no rate cut in July. Currently, the inflow of funds is continuously slowing down. This decline indicates that the market's overheated sentiment is naturally cooling, while major institutions and investors intend to continue holding positions and reduce selling.
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase before the next round of market activity under the subtle situation this week.
Bullish: 112000 is currently a strong resistance level; to break through the historical high, major institutions' support and favorable news are needed for a new breakthrough.
Bearish: Currently, 102000-100000 is a significant support level; unless driven by a sharp deterioration in geopolitical tensions, the probability of breaking below is low.
Summary: Geopolitical risk is the dominant variable in the short-term market, and we need to be wary of emotional reversals! The turning point of the Federal Reserve's policy is approaching; pay attention to whether this month's decision signals a rate cut in September. If the situation eases, the market focus will return to inflation and employment data.
The story is still unfolding. This week, let's continue to embark on this journey with Yumi and watch how the market develops!
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