Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Countdown: Cryptocurrency Life and Death in 10 Hours
Nuclear-level Event: Life or Death Decided at 2 AM on the 19th
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is in its final countdown! The current market bets on a 99% probability of 'holding steady', but the real explosive point lies in the adjustment of the dot plot and Powell's statements—if he suggests only one rate cut this year, BTC could instantly spike above $100,000, with 1.7 billion in liquidation orders already lurking across the network. On-chain data shows that in the past 48 hours, whales have transferred 32,000 BTC to exchanges, preparing to crash the market.
Three Major Variables Determine BTC's Fate
Middle East Thunder: Iran fires missiles again → Oil prices soar to $130 → Inflation rebounds → Fed turns hawkish → BTC bearish to $95,000; if US-Iran talks succeed → BTC counterattacks to $108,000
Policy Thunder: If Powell raises core PCE inflation expectations to 2.8%+ and suggests 'only one rate cut this year', institutional ETF buying will cool, making Grayscale's $150,000 target empty talk.
Unlock Thunder: Tokens like ARB and ZK face a sell-off of $260 million this week, ETH's market share drops to 7.9% (a 5-year low), and whales may take the opportunity to pump SOL and XRP.
Operational Iron Rules:
BTC: Must stop loss if breaking $100,000, reduce position by 50% if rebounding to $105,000.
ETH: Gas fees at $50 + staking yield at 3.8%, better to swap to SOL (TVL breaks $10 billion) or XRP (cross-border payment protocol launched).
Altcoins: Stay away from non-top three exchange tokens; 90% will go to zero; only play with platform coins like BNB, OKB, etc.
Ultimate Truth: The Federal Reserve is the biggest whale.
Don't believe the 'three rate cuts' hype! China International Capital Corporation confirms: tariffs + oil prices drive up inflation, with less than 30% probability of rate cuts before September. The Fed manages expectations more ruthlessly than Trump—first easing to rally the market, then tightening to harvest; a similar strategy caused 200,000 liquidations during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
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