June 16th - Brother Chuan's perspective on coins
Fundamentals:
1. After the ACT flash crash two and a half months ago, ZKJ experienced a flash crash at eleven o'clock in the evening, with a decline of over 80% within an hour. The trigger for this flash crash was mainly due to its liquidity being drained and a chain reaction of sell-offs caused by token unlocks. This also reveals the extreme vulnerability of small coin projects in terms of incentive mechanisms and weak on-chain liquidity; once they encounter mechanism adjustments or large-holder operations, it can trigger panic across the entire chain. For retail investors, recognizing these structural traps and avoiding involvement in easily collapsing market conditions is a capital preservation strategy.
2. This week will see the large unlocking of tokens such as ZK, ZKJ, and ARB. Be cautious with risk management!
3. The conflict between Israel and Palestine has escalated, further worsening the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. In the short term, risk appetite has sharply declined, leading to large-scale capital withdrawals and leveraged liquidations intensifying the decline, while the safe-haven attributes of digital gold are being questioned. Crypto assets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks; when conflicts erupt, risk appetite declines, and crypto assets are the first to bear the brunt. If conflicts escalate and the impact widens, crypto may continue to face pressure.
Technical analysis:
BTC: Last week, the weekly line peaked and then fell, closing with a long upper shadow on a bearish candle. This week's opening price is the first time in two and a half months that it has fallen below the seven-day moving average. Starting from the 17th, short-term U.S. Treasuries will gradually mature, with long-term bonds maturing in early July. The maturity of U.S. Treasuries itself will be favorable for non-U.S. products. However, the current geopolitical conflict may cause some funds to flow into dollars or gold, thus weakening this favorable condition. On the daily level, affected by geopolitical conflicts, the coin price has sharply dropped to around 103, entering a phase of adjustment. From the rebound rhythm of these days' short cycles, it can be seen that there is still considerable pressure above, with multiple peaks at 106 and retracements at 104. For the subsequent market, the only way to make profits is for Bitcoin to undergo a deep adjustment, which would be the most appropriate approach! Without new funds like interest rate cuts entering the market, Bitcoin is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough trend. The market's fear of heights makes the sustainability of the trend difficult; this kind of profitability is fleeting. The 4-hour line showed a slight rebound in the morning, but trading volume is sluggish, and there is significant pressure above. For intraday operations, key resistance is at the 1065-1075 level above, and key support is at the 1045-1035 level below.
ETH: Last week, the weekly line peaked and then fell, closing with a long upper shadow on a small bullish candle. Currently, the K-line is still supported by the lower moving average, maintaining an overall upward trend. However, the market environment is poor, making it difficult for the trend to achieve a breakthrough rise, and further increases will require an opportunity. The daily line has four consecutive down days, with clear support at the 2480-2500 range, leading to some stabilization in the market, but shrinking volume results in sideways movement. Looking at the 4-hour line, there was a double-bottom rebound in the morning, and currently, a small bullish entity has emerged, indicating that the market still has room for further rebound, but the extent of the rebound will not be large. For intraday operations, key resistance is at the 2630-2600 level above, and key support is at the 2530-2500 level below.
Altcoins: The tokens mentioned in the fundamentals that will soon be unlocked this week, make sure to control the risks and guard against market reactions. Continuing from the previous discussion, without new funds coming in such as interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is unlikely to reach new heights. Meanwhile, the market's risk-averse sentiment makes high-risk altcoins even harder to perform well. Currently, the market's profitability is low, and the altcoin rally is fleeting, making it difficult to secure any profits! Be patient and let things play out.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, exercise caution when entering, personal opinions, no recommendations, for sharing purposes only.