On the 25th anniversary of the (North-South Joint Declaration), Lee Jae-myung reiterated the restoration of dialogue and cooperation with North Korea. This statement is not only a continuation of the progressive government's policy towards North Korea but also a strategic adjustment based on realistic dilemmas. Its substantive impact and potential benefits can be analyzed from multiple dimensions, but a comprehensive assessment needs to consider North Korea's possible reactions and the complexity of geopolitical factors.
⚔ 1. Military security: Reducing conflict risks, rebuilding crisis management
1. Stop hostile actions
Lee Jae-myung has ordered the cessation of loudspeaker broadcasts towards North Korea (previously used for political propaganda or noise interference), and North Korea subsequently suspended its anti-South Korea noise broadcasts. Although these symbolic measures are small, they directly alleviate tensions at the border, reduce the risk of accidental clashes, and create foundational conditions for subsequent dialogue.
2. Restore crisis management mechanisms
Plans to restart the military hotline between North and South Korea and the (9·19 Military Agreement) (abolished during Yoon Suk-yeol's government) aim to establish communication channels for sudden incidents to avoid misjudgments escalating into military conflicts. For example, a confrontation in 2024 caused by balloon leaflets previously led both sides to restart loudspeaker broadcasts; having a hotline would allow for a quick cooling-off.
💰 2. Economic livelihood: Trading peace for development, activating regional economy
1. The core logic of 'peace is economy'
Lee Jae-myung emphasizes that the tense situation on the peninsula directly threatens South Korea's economic security and the stability of people's livelihoods. If the 'Korean Peninsula risk' can be transformed into 'peninsula advantages,' it could attract foreign investment, stabilize market confidence, and pave the way for cross-border economic cooperation. For example, although the Kaesong Industrial Complex was closed during Moon Jae-in's administration, it once generated an annual output value of $2.3 billion and provided 54,000 jobs for North Koreans.
2. Long-term industrial cooperation potential
If dialogue makes progress, it may restart joint projects in energy, railways, fisheries, etc., reduce supply chain risks for South Korean companies, and even develop a Russia-North Korea-South Korea economic corridor (such as a gas pipeline), enhancing regional economic resilience.
🕊 3. Political diplomacy: Reshaping the peninsula's discourse power, breaking the isolation dilemma
1. Domestic political demands
At the beginning of Lee Jae-myung's term, he faced pressures such as economic downturn and conservative backlash. Promoting reconciliation with North Korea could consolidate support from progressive factions and highlight his 'peace president' image, distinguishing him from Yoon Suk-yeol's hardline approach.
2. Diplomatic strategic space
Currently, the US is deeply entangled in the Middle East situation, weakening its constraints on South Korea; meanwhile, North Korea urgently needs external breakthroughs due to sanctions. Lee Jae-myung's choice to speak out at this time aims to reshape the peninsula agenda with 'southern leadership' and strive to play a mediating role between the US and North Korea, avoiding South Korea becoming a pawn in great power games.
🌏 4. Regional stability: Avoiding a vicious cycle, building a peace framework
Breaking the 'strong against strong' dilemma
During Yoon Suk-yeol's term, the trust between North and South Korea collapsed, and North Korea even designated South Korea as a 'hostile country.' If Lee Jae-myung's conciliatory stance receives a response, it may gradually rebuild the minimum level of trust and prevent a spiral escalation similar to 'missile test military exercises.'
Laying the foundation for multilateral negotiations
Dialogue between the North and South is a necessary step to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. Restoring communication channels can provide leverage for the China-US-North Korea-South Korea quadrilateral to restart negotiations and avoid the peninsula becoming the forefront of a 'new Cold War.'
⚠ 5. Challenges and uncertainties
1. North Korea's attitude remains unclear
North Korea has previously explicitly rejected 'contact with South Korea' and has not formally responded to Lee Jae-myung's proposal. If North Korea demands that South Korea first lift unilateral sanctions or stop US-South Korea military exercises, conservative forces within South Korea may strongly react.
2. Constraints of the American factor
The Biden administration's policy towards North Korea is mainly based on pressure. If South and North Korea move closer independently, it may trigger cracks in the US-South Korea alliance. Lee Jae-myung needs to balance 'independent diplomacy' with alliance relations.
3. Domestic political resistance
Conservatives criticize the thawing of relations with North Korea as 'compromise and appeasement.' If North Korea subsequently tests missiles, Lee Jae-myung's policy may be questioned as 'naive.'
💎 Conclusion: A strategic test of 'a fight to the death'
The short-term substantive benefits of Lee Jae-myung's initiative lie in reducing military friction, boosting economic confidence, and accumulating political capital; the long-term impact depends on whether it can promote a 'positive interactive cycle' between North and South Korea, thereby reconstructing the peninsula's peace mechanism. However, this move is essentially a high-risk gamble: if North Korea responds, the peninsula may welcome a 'second period of détente after the Moon Jae-in era'; if it fails, it will exacerbate South Korea's diplomatic isolation. The current tacit stance of North Korea suspending noise broadcasts suggests that the window for dialogue is not completely closed, but further substantial measures (such as restoring military hotlines) are needed to break the deadlock.