Middle East geopolitics, war trends, global finance, and Bitcoin market responses:
1. Overview of Iran's military strength (2024-2025)
1. Core power composition:
Powerful missile forces: Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, including medium and long-range missiles such as 'Meteor-3', 'Khoramshahr', and 'Tehran', with a range of up to 2000 kilometers, capable of covering Israel, Saudi Arabia, and US bases in the Middle East.
Drone forces lead in the Middle East: Iranian drones (such as Shahed-136) have been validated in multiple combat scenarios in the Red Sea, Ukraine, and Syria.
Proxy network: Iran manipulates a large number of proxy armed forces through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), such as:
Hezbollah (poses a northern threat to Israel)
Houthi armed forces (controlling the Red Sea situation)
Iraqi militias, Syrian pro-Iran forces, etc.
Conventional military power is relatively weak: the air force is outdated, tanks and navy equipment largely use technology from the last century from the Soviet Union and China, lacking modernization.
2. Current state of the Israel-Iran conflict and possible duration (June 2025)
Current situation (as of mid-June 2025):
Both sides remain in the 'limited conflict + proxy war' stage.
Since October 2024, the multi-front conflict between Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah, and Israel has intensified.
In April 2025, Iran launched missiles directly at Israel for the first time (successfully intercepted by the US and UK), and Israel retaliated against Iranian military targets in mid-April.
Is the US statement of 'possibly lasting several weeks' reasonable?
Yes, from the following perspectives:
Neither the US nor Israel is willing to get into a prolonged war (to avoid a quagmire like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars).
Iran also does not want to open a full-scale war front, as its economy is extremely weak and long under sanctions.
Decapitation-style airstrikes + proxy conflicts are expected to last for several weeks to months but are unlikely to develop into a full-scale conventional war.
3. Possible outcomes of the war
Three main scenarios:
1. Limited conflict + return to deterrence balance (high probability, 60%)
Both sides gradually ease hostilities, with rising domestic pressures (political crisis in Israel, economic crisis in Iran).
Proxy conflicts remain 'controllable', similar to the situation after 2019.
The US, UN, and other multilateral forces intervene to 'mediate'.
2. Partial escalation + risk of regime change (medium probability, 30%)
If pinpoint strikes by Israel/US forces result in severe damage to Iranian leadership or internal loss of control (such as the death of IRGC leaders), it could trigger internal protests and regime instability.
3. Full-scale war (low probability, 10%)
Misjudgment by Iran or Israel could lead to large-scale ground/air battles, even affecting key areas like tankers and the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the US to intervene on a large scale.
4. Analysis of the impact on Bitcoin
The impact of war on Bitcoin mainly transmits through the following paths:
War situation Market impact Bitcoin response
Short-term conflict escalation (missile strikes, proxy wars) Risk aversion rises, stock markets fall, gold rises BTC rises (hedging in sync with gold)
Oil prices surge (Red Sea, Hormuz blocked) Inflation worries intensify, dollar fluctuations BTC benefits (as an 'inflation-hedged asset')
The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or shift towards easing (due to the war) Liquidity increases BTC surges (2020-2021 pattern reappears)
If a full-scale war breaks out Global financial system panic, short-term liquidity tightness BTC falls initially and then rises (initial sell-off followed by a safe-haven rebound)
📌 2024-2025 Market Review:
In October 2024, the Gaza conflict broke out, with BTC rising from 27K to 73K by early 2025. Behind this is the war + expectations of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
5. Summary of views
Dimension Analysis conclusion
Iran's military strength Missiles + drones + powerful proxies, conventional forces relatively weak
War trend It is possible for the short-term to continue for 'several weeks'; the probability of escalating into a full-scale war is low.
Outcome prediction More likely to be 'limited war + return to balance'.
Bitcoin impact The tendency for war escalation is bullish for BTC, especially if it leads to a delay in Fed rate hikes or expectations of dollar depreciation.
