Analysis integration regarding Iranian military strength, duration of war with Israel, outcome predictions, and impact on Bitcoin, combined with the latest combat situation and multiple assessments:
⚔ 1. Assessment of Iranian military strength
1. Scale advantage
Troop size: Active regular army 587,000 (including 125,000 Revolutionary Guards), plus 450,000 militia 'Basij', can mobilize up to 1 million in wartime, global military strength ranking about 15th.
Missiles and drones: Possesses the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East (over 3,000), including 'Khoramshahr 4' hypersonic missiles (range 2,000 kilometers) and 12 Mach-speed missiles, capable of overcoming Israeli missile defense systems; drone technology (e.g., 'Shahed 136') validated in the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, has saturation strike capability.
2. Core weaknesses
Technological lag: Air Force's main fighters are outdated F4, F14, etc., far inferior to Israel's F35I; air defense systems (relying on S300 and self-developed equipment) have been easily penetrated by Israeli F35 in real combat, with weak electronic warfare capabilities.
Economic constraints: Affected by international sanctions, inflation rates reach 40%, military spending rises to $30 billion (12% of GDP), but sustainability is in doubt.
3. Proxy networks
Supporting regional armed groups through the 'Axis of Resistance' (e.g., Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis) can multi-line contain Israel, but actual effectiveness is limited by Israeli interception technology (e.g., Iron Dome system intercept rate over 90%).
| Key indicators of Iranian military strength | Data/Situation | Global ranking |
||||
| Active military personnel (including Revolutionary Guards) | 587,000 | 9th place |
| Mobilizable militia ('Basij') | 450,000 (up to 1 million in wartime) | |
| Missile stockpile | Over 3,000 | Middle East No. 1 |
| Main fighter jets | F4, F14, and a few Su-35s | Lagging |
| Air defense systems | S300 and self-developed systems (failed in real combat) | Vulnerabilities exist |
| Military spending in 2025 | $30 billion (12% of GDP) | 17th place |
| Economic conditions | Inflation rate 40%, severely affected by international sanctions | |
⏳ 2. War duration prediction
1. Short-term intensification (next 12 weeks)
Iran has launched the 'Real Promise 3' retaliation operation, expected to continue launching missiles and drones, and mobilizing Hezbollah (with a stockpile of 150,000 rockets) for multi-line attacks.
Israel may launch a second round of airstrikes targeting the Fordow underground nuclear facility and missile depots.
2. Mid-term stalemate (24 weeks)
Attrition warfare dominance: Iran relies on proxies to wear down Israel, avoiding direct confrontation; Israel relies on technological advantages for precise strikes, but domestic air defense pressure increases.
Diplomatic window: U.S., Russia, and China intervene and mediate (e.g., Putin has called for a ceasefire), if Iran's nuclear facilities are severely damaged (e.g., 90% of centrifuges destroyed at Natanz), it may accept temporary uranium freeze in exchange for sanctions relief.
3. Long-term risks (more than 1 month)
If both sides misjudge or touch a red line (e.g., Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Israel striking the Dimona nuclear facility), the conflict could escalate into a regional war, but the probability is low (about 10%).
🔮 3. Outcome predictions: Three possible scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Key pathway | Consequences |
|||||
| Limited conflict downgrade | 40% | Iran retains strength after symbolic retaliation, accepts stricter nuclear agreements; U.S. and Israel jointly apply pressure, Arab countries acquiesce. | Return to 'shadow war', Iran's nuclear program regresses by 23 years. |
| Regional proxy wars | 50% | Iran consumes Israel through Hezbollah and Houthis; Israel's ground offensive in Lebanon, U.S. military intervenes to escort in the Red Sea. | Oil prices soar to $100/barrel, the Middle East splits into two major camps. |
| Full-scale war out of control | 10% | Iran successfully strikes Israeli nuclear facilities, or Israel triggers an Iranian nuclear leak; U.S. and Russia directly intervene (e.g., providing S500 systems). | Global energy supply chain collapse, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Turkey acquire nuclear weapons). |
Key variables:
The truth about the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities (IAEA assessment results);
U.S. aid strength (e.g., F22 deployment in the Middle East);
Iran's domestic stability (economic collapse or anti-war sentiment among the populace).
₿ 4. Impact on Bitcoin
1. Short-term crash and leverage liquidation
Bitcoin fell 5% within 24 hours after the conflict broke out (falling below $102,000), with a total liquidation of $1 billion across the network within 12 hours (93.7% of long positions).
Pattern replicating the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war: panic selling → leverage liquidation → technical resonance decline.
2. Medium- and long-term differentiation logic
Safe haven properties are limited: Bitcoin transaction speed is slow (7 transactions per second), relies on network infrastructure, faces practical usage barriers under wartime control, and cannot replace gold's physical safe haven function.
Regional capital channel value: Middle Eastern capital may transfer assets through USDT/BTC, supporting buying pressure (refer to the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict).
3. Historical pattern reference
Panic selling phase: Geopolitical conflict outbreak triggers selling (e.g., Bitcoin dropped 10% during the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022).
Safe haven return phase: If the conflict does not trigger global systemic risk, funds may flow back into the crypto market due to anti-censorship needs.
> 💡 Key conclusion: Bitcoin is more of a highly volatile speculative asset in war rather than a stable safe haven; its price fluctuations depend on whether the conflict escalates into a global systemic risk (e.g., oil prices skyrocketing to $150, U.S.-Russia intervention).
💎 Summary
Iran's military strength is 'large but not strong', with proxy networks and missile stockpiles as core bargaining chips; the war is likely to continue as a medium to low-intensity attrition conflict for 2-4 weeks, followed by a shift to diplomatic negotiations; the most likely outcome is the long-term nature of regional proxy wars (50% probability), with the risk of full-scale war being controllable but the consequences being dire. Bitcoin is under short-term pressure, but if the conflict does not trigger a global energy crisis, its value as a capital escape channel may support a subsequent rebound.
