I've been in the crypto world for ten years. Six years ago, I quit my job to trade crypto. From having nothing to being rich, what truly changed me was a night five years ago. A senior told me something that made me wake up, helped me understand the eight major periods every crypto trader must go through, and I constantly reflected on it, using it as a mirror until I finally regained what I had lost!
Perhaps in some people's eyes, retail investors will always be lambs to be slaughtered!
If you're ready to enter the crypto world, I sincerely hope this article can help you. As someone with decent summarizing skills and expression, I believe some of my thoughts may assist you. Alright, enough chit-chat, let's get straight to the point~
When it's difficult to make selling decisions in crypto, ask yourself: if your analysis is correct, why is the market moving in the opposite direction? The only reason is that you were wrong, because the market never makes mistakes!
Trading in crypto is not a gamble; wealth is a marathon.
Those who are envious of short-term gains eventually become fodder.
Slow is fast; stability wins.
These eight iron rules are lessons paid for with real money:
1. Adding positions is just to survive; don't fantasize about getting rich.
If you are stuck, adding more positions to average down is fine, but expecting a one-time turnaround? The market makers are just waiting for you to think that way.
2. It's always particularly quiet before the storm.
The longer it consolidates, the harsher the change will be. Don't relax your vigilance in calm waters.
3. When prices are rising furiously, it’s time to buckle your seatbelt.
All vertical rises will take a breath; are K-lines shrinking into triangles? This means the market is brewing a big move.
4. Buy when blood flows like rivers, sell when drums beat loud.
When the aunties outside the exchange start discussing Bitcoin, it’s time to quietly retreat.
5. Don't chase during rapid rises, don't be afraid during crashes, and don't get itchy hands during consolidation.
Don't rush to exit when the market is soaring; don't be afraid to catch falling knives during steep declines; only during consolidation should you keep your hands steady.
6. Look for ceilings when prices rise, and look for floors when prices fall.
Previous highs are pressure points, and previous lows are air defense trenches; keep a close watch on these two positions.
7. Always keep a bullet in the chamber.
Those who go all-in are either geniuses or reckless gamblers—unfortunately, geniuses are one in a million in the market.
8. Trading crypto is essentially about cultivating the mind.
Do you FOMO at bullish candles and cut losses at bearish ones? You're playing with coins, not a heartbeat simulator.
Remember, the whales that live long are all slow to grow.
The golden rule of trend trading: the art of coordinating small and large cycles—large cycles set the direction, small cycles find opportunities.
The large cycle is your navigation instrument (daily/weekly):
Look at the trend: quickly identify whether it's a bull market, bear market, or sideways market, and address the soul-searching question of ‘should I take action?’
Find the key: lock in those support and resistance levels that make prices 'irresistible'; these are where big movements are most likely to occur.
The small cycle is your sniper scope (4 hours/15 minutes):
Wait for the right opportunity: find the best entry point within the larger trend, just like waiting for a bus; there's no need to chase.
Establish defense lines: draw stop-loss lines in advance, losses must be clear, profits must be solid.
II. The four major mysteries of cycle interaction.
Suppression effect:
When the small cycle hits a high point of the large cycle, it's like hitting a ceiling. Chasing the rise? Be careful about getting knocked out!
Breakthrough effect:
When the small cycle violently breaks through key points of the large cycle, it's like opening the meridians—the trend might take off.
Support effect:
When the big trend is upward, and the small cycle retraces to the large cycle support level, it’s like jumping on a trampoline, often bouncing even higher.
Characteristics of a healthy trend:
A genuinely good trend sees small and large cycles working in harmony—highs getting higher, lows getting higher, just like climbing stairs, one step at a time.
Practical mindset:
Look at the big picture and wait for small confirmations. The larger cycle tells you where to go, while the smaller cycle tells you when to step. Remember, the market is always playing psychological games with you, and the big and small cycles are your secret weapons.
Key points:
Don't be greedy; withdraw a portion of your profits first, secure your gains.
Don't hold positions. If your floating loss exceeds 2%, cut it immediately; the market will not pity you.
Don't mess around. Rolling positions are only suitable for trending markets; don't seek death in a volatile market.
The core of making money in crypto is two points: find the trend + execute strictly.
The most important iron rule:
If the price drops below the 60-day line on the day of purchase, you must liquidate immediately! Don’t hesitate, don’t fantasize. Remember: surviving in crypto is more important than anything else.
This method seems simple, but it excels in stability. I’ve avoided countless crashes and captured several big movements with this simple method. Sometimes, the simplest methods are the most effective.
Those who survive in this industry all have their own survival codes. My code is these seven sentences—they helped me survive the wild fluctuations and even live quite well.
When the leader moves, everything comes alive.
Every track has a leading brother. When the big brother charges, don't rush to chase; turn around and look at the second and third brothers—opportunities are often hidden in the following crowd.
Volume does not lie.
When it's quiet, slowly accumulate; load up when there's volume at the bottom; clear out during explosive volume at highs. Volume is the most honest indicator; it’s more reliable than any analyst.
Low volume is your friend, high volume is an alarm.
Is the volume shrinking during corrections? That's the main force taking a break. Is the volume suddenly increasing? Be careful; they might be offloading.
Indicators speak for themselves.
Buy when RSI tests the bottom three times, sell when it tests the top three times. Below 10, close your eyes and buy; above 85, run quickly. New price highs but weak indicators? That's the market coughing to remind you. KDJ is the compass for short-term players, while long-term players should pay more attention to TRIX.
Forget the fairy tales of 'good coins' and 'bad coins'.
The market only recognizes strength and weakness. Strong coins are like armored warriors, while weak coins are like leaking tires—no matter how nice the story sounds, the flow of funds is the truth.
Moving averages are the trump cards of market makers.
Buy on golden crosses, sell on death crosses. When the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are supporting, you can relax, but be alert if it breaks the 10-day line; a reversal of the 5-day line is a signal to retreat. The market makers defend their positions like protecting their own threshold, and the 10-day line is often their bottom line.
The trend is your ally.
Those who dare to rise will continue to rise; those who play dead may really die. Don't go against the trend, and even more so, don't go against yourself—the market is stubborn towards those with different thoughts.
Bonus: Three blood and tears maxims:
Don't chase during rapid rises, don't panic during deep drops, and keep your hands steady during consolidation.
Buy on bearish candles, sell after bullish candles.
Long consolidation leads to change; clear out on high breaks and load up on low breaks.
Remember, these are not spells; they are scars from surviving. The market is always changing, but human nature has never changed—this is the essence of the game.
This market is always repeating the same secret: 90% of retail investors trade based on news, 9% of smart people watch the market makers, while 1% of wolf-like players dissect the market genes using daily moving averages.
Step One: Verify the moving averages. Treat the daily moving average as three old doctors with distinct personalities— the 5-day line is the emergency department head, the 30-day line is the internal medicine expert, and the 60-day line is seated on a specialist's chair. When the emergency department head suddenly perks up and reaches out to measure the two old experts (the 5-day line crossing above the 30/60-day lines), this is a signal that the market is preparing for ICU rescue. Conversely, if the emergency department head slips and rolls down from the specialist's chair (the 5-day line crossing below the 30/60-day lines), don’t hesitate, cut your positions immediately.
Step Two: Establish a trading system to prevent impulsive decisions.
Now please stick a note on your trading interface and write with a bold marker: Moving averages fight, mere mortals retreat. When the 5-day and 30-day lines are tangled like twisted dough, rushing into the market is equivalent to rolling dice and guessing odds. A true hunter only pulls the trigger when all three lines are marching in the same direction.
Here's a counterintuitive cold fact: in the volatile world of crypto, the daily moving average strategy is deadlier the simpler it is. Just like true martial arts masters in combat, they never need to show fifty starting moves; a breakout of the 5-day line is the signal to draw the sword, and the turning of the 60-day line is the time to sheathe it.
Step Three: Weld discipline onto the trading platform.
I've seen too many people write their trading plans on napkins, only to tear them up in a panic during an overnight spike. The cruelest yet most merciful aspect of the daily moving average strategy is that it forces you to become an emotionless signal execution machine.
Here's a dark humor: a trader who used daily moving averages for stable profits for three years received a warning about the 5-day line breaking while at a wedding. He actually hid in the bathroom to close his position before coming out to exchange rings. Later, his bride pulled his ear and cursed him, but after seeing the account balance, she silently got him a top-notch monitor.
(Carve this sentence in your mind: you can doubt your actions, but never doubt the moving averages that have already formed a synergy.)
Genuine rolling positions are not gambling, but mathematically crushing the market. Here are three core logics:
1. The ‘stop-loss line’ is a false proposition.
Most people set a 3% stop-loss, but end up cutting losses repeatedly.
True risk control is ‘volatility anchoring’. For example, after ETH breaks above the middle track of the weekly Bollinger bands, during the pullback phase, using 5x leverage increases the stop-loss space to 8%, but the triggering probability decreases by 60% (data backtested from 2023 to now).
2. The timing for adding positions is the 50% retracement level + shrinking volume.
For example, when BTC drops from 70,000 to 65,000, if the 4-hour chart shows a ‘long lower shadow + volume shrinking to MA20’, the success rate for adding positions at this time triples. Blind pyramid adding positions = suicide.
3. Profits must be ‘locked across cycles.’
Withdraw your principal every time you make a 30% profit, and let the profits continue to roll. Remember: the money in your exchange account is just a number; the money you withdraw to your wallet is yours.
(To prevent misuse of the strategy, specific parameters and coin selections will not be disclosed for now, but you must at least know ‘what is a positively convex position’.)
Warning: If you're still opening positions based on 'feelings', no strategy can save you.
How do real experts play?
Withdraw your principal first after making profits and let the profits continue to run; total losses must not exceed 30%; only act during market panic or frenzy; treat other times as watching a show.
The market always has rules:
After a significant drop, there will definitely be a rebound. The longer it consolidates, the more violent the breakout. When everyone in the group is shouting 'take off', it's time to run.
Let me say something heart-wrenching: in this market, 90% of people are just fodder, while 10% of people take away 90% of the money. Which one do you want to be? Will you continue to give money away, or learn the rules and become a hunter? The choice is yours.
The market is like a knife; how can retail investors survive in a sea of blood?
‘One general’s success comes at the cost of countless bones.’ The recent market slaughter is like cutting through chaos—whether it’s a violent rise or fall, by the time you react, the knife has already struck. You don't feel the pain but have already lost your head, without even the chance to cry out in grievance. Whether it's a fight between Trump and Musk or a change in the direction of China-U.S. negotiations, you can get cut; even a random word from Trump can cut you.
The wisest choice lately is to take profits and withdraw cash. First, preserve your principal and ensure your living bottom line. Even if you encounter a pullback, you won’t be seriously hurt. Watching the market bleed like rivers and seeing corpses everywhere, the feeling of desolation pierces the heart—most retail investors just want to earn a little pocket money, but end up losing everything with a single operation. How can one live like this?
Economic recession, pressure on the real economy, difficulty in employment, high debt, and obstacles in foreign trade—who isn't struggling in this bull and horse life? No one wants to deal with contracts, but looking at the few coins in your pocket, you have to choose this high-risk path—otherwise, how can you bear the weight of life?
Successfully recouping losses and doubling the account. Follow closely, make early positions, and enjoy the big profits!!!
Continue to follow: SKATE MEMEFI.
#以色列伊朗冲突 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #特朗普比特币金库 #美国加征关税
