Recently, the Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 26, far below the 'altcoin season' threshold of 75, indicating that the market is still in the Bitcoin-dominated (BTC Season) phase. However, historical data shows that this index often rebounds after hitting a bottom, so is there still a chance for altcoins this year? How should retail investors respond?
Inflow of funds into the market decreases: fluctuations remain stable.
Despite the altcoin market experiencing severe price fluctuations, the number of altcoins flowing into exchanges (exchange inflow transaction volume) remains surprisingly low.
At major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit, the trading volume of altcoin deposits rarely exceeds 30,000—a far cry from the peaks above 100,000 seen during significant corrections in March and December 2024.
Unlike past instances where altcoins were massively sold off before significant corrections, current data shows a clear shift in investor behavior. They are no longer pushing tokens to exchanges for sale, but are opting to transfer assets to decentralized exchanges (DEX) or convert them into stablecoins like USDC or USDT for value preservation.
Lateral liquidity and lack of selling pressure indicate that market sentiment is becoming more cautious—and may also signal that the adjustment cycle will unfold differently.
However, if we only consider data from centralized exchanges, we may not get a complete picture of the market situation.
Capital inflow remains sluggish, indicating that investors are not in a hurry to close their positions. This reflects a more stable market sentiment and a relief of panic—potentially a sign that a sustained accumulation phase is forming.
Amid the escalating geopolitical tensions, panic is easing, replaced by a phase of 'cleaning up' and restructuring. This is not a time of excessive excitement or extreme fear, but rather a time of cautious optimism. Recent fluctuations and liquidation waves are helping the market restore order.
Can the altcoin season indicator reverse?
According to the data of the Altcoin Season Index, this index previously broke 30 and has now fallen back to 26, indicating that Bitcoin is still leading the market pulse amid recent fluctuations.
However, altcoins are not completely eliminated. Some signs of recovery have begun to emerge, indicating that the market still has room for warming up.
If this index breaks 50, it will clearly indicate that a true altcoin season is about to begin. Currently, the balance still favors Bitcoin—but situations in the cryptocurrency world can change overnight.
Will 2025 repeat the pattern of 2021?
Looking back at the altcoin cycles of 2021 and 2025, a striking similarity immediately catches attention: both exhibited a 'double false breakout' pattern—two consecutive price traps—slightly below the 1-month moving average, followed by a strong market rebound.
In 2021, this pattern initiated a months-long bull market for altcoins.
In 2025, the market broke through the $180 billion support level twice, but both times there was a significant rebound. The technical structure is gradually forming, but whether a breakthrough trend actually occurs still depends on subsequent market movements.
However, liquidity and macro factors do not really exist in the market landscape of 2025. If the market cap of altcoins can maintain steady growth and reach the threshold of $270 billion, then a widespread explosion is entirely possible.
Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the key moving averages, the current uptrend may be offset. Although technical signals suggest the market is ready, actual cash flow is still needed to solidify the upward trend.
Signs of an upcoming altcoin season may be emerging.
As BTC's upward momentum slows, capital may overflow: if Bitcoin consolidates around $120,000, some profit-taking funds may shift towards altcoins.
ETH/BTC ratio rebounds: ETH has recently performed better than BTC, which may boost altcoin sentiment.
Institutions predict that the altcoin season is approaching: if BTC.D has peaked, funds may shift towards altcoins.
How should retail investors operate? Strategy suggestions.
Short term (1-3 months)
Keep an eye on BTC trends: if BTC.D drops below 60%, start gradually positioning in strong altcoins (such as ETH, SOL, DeFi blue chips).
Focus on narrative-driven trends: hotspots like AI, RWA, and chain games may still rotate, but quick in-and-out strategies are necessary.
Avoid high FDV, low circulation projects: the risks of altcoins with large VC unlock selling pressure are extremely high.
Medium to long-term (6-12 months)
Regularly invest in undervalued blue chips: such as UNI, LINK, AAVE, and accumulate on dips.
Waiting for policy catalysts: if U.S. cryptocurrency regulation becomes clearer, compliant altcoins may seize opportunities.
Control position ratios: to prevent extreme volatility risks.
If BTC consolidates or pulls back, some altcoins may see a rebound, but careful selection of targets is necessary. The market is still dominated by Bitcoin, and a full-blown altcoin season may be delayed until late 2025 or early 2026. Patience is needed for the BTC.D turning point; prioritize positioning in high liquidity, strong narrative altcoins, and avoid blindly chasing low-quality coins. Be wary of the risk of 'going all-in on altcoins too early' and maintain a flexible strategy.
