Analysis: BTC is abnormally decoupled from US Treasury yields, and its role in the macroeconomy has undergone a structural change

On June 15, Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost released a market analysis saying that the macroeconomy has become the dominant narrative in today's cryptocurrency market. Therefore, key indicators such as the US dollar index (DXY) and US Treasury yields are now closely watched by investors, reflecting the overall state of institutional sentiment and global liquidity. When DXY and bond yields rise at the same time, capital tends to withdraw from risky assets. In this environment, Bitcoin usually experiences a pullback. Historically, bear markets in cryptocurrencies have often coincided with strong upward trends in yields and DXY.

Conversely, when DXY and yields lose momentum, investors' risk appetite shifts to risky assets. These periods are usually associated with monetary easing or market expectations of Fed rate cuts, driving bullish sentiment in the crypto market. What is striking in the current cycle is the abnormal decoupling between Bitcoin and bond yields. Despite yields reaching one of the highest levels in Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin has continued its upward trend, especially when DXY falls, which tends to accelerate. This anomaly suggests a structural shift in Bitcoin’s role in the macroeconomic landscape, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed as a store of value. This new narrative may be redefining how Bitcoin responds to traditional macroeconomic forces. #CryptoQuant #Darkfost