After stepping away from Binance Square for a few months I’m back to dive into what could drive the next phase of Bitcoin. Right now the world feels like it’s on edge. War is breaking out in the Middle East and civil unrest is brewing in Los Angeles. Commodities are swinging wildly with oil prices surging and gold reclaiming its spot as the go to safe haven. It’s a chaotic moment that some see as a window for crypto to shine but things are rarely that simple.
Rising oil prices hit crypto miners hard. As energy costs go up mining rigs that were once profitable are now barely breaking even. At the same time the rush into gold signals that investors are fleeing from risk turning away from stocks and crypto alike. That wave leaves Bitcoin sitting isolated in the center of the storm. But history offers a different perspective.
Warren Buffett once said:
Buy When There's Blood In The Streets.
And right now there is blood everywhere. Still war has not always meant disaster for markets. When World War I started, the Dow dropped 30 percent but by the end of the war it was up 43 percent averaging 8.7 percent per year. After Pearl Harbor World War II triggered just a 2.9 percent drop and fully recovered in about a month finishing the war up around 50 percent or 7 percent annually. Even during the Vietnam War the Dow gained 43 percent through 1973.
Bitcoin has followed similar patterns. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 Bitcoin dropped 10 percent bounced back the next week and later stabilized near $47,000.
How about now?
A few days ago. I ran a Pearson correlation test comparing global M2 money supply with Bitcoin price history. The result showed a strong 0.739 correlation, confirming it was statistically significant. Put simply when central banks print money Bitcoin tends to absorb the extra liquidity.
This is not theory it is already happening. Around the world governments have turned to monetary stimulus to support weak economies and Bitcoin has acted like a sponge soaking up the fresh supply of cash.
Based on this pattern and the broader economic cycle my models point to a bullish trend for Bitcoin extending through September 2025 possibly hitting a new all time high.
Numbers aside market psychology tends to repeat. My cycle clock model points to Bitcoin entering a euphoria phase between September and November 2025. This lines up with past halving cycles increasing liquidity and the usual investor rush that often pushes prices beyond logic.
So is the current crisis a red flag or a green light Most people see it as a signal of more losses to come. But for those who understand how war inflation and monetary policy connect with crypto this could be a smart entry point rather than a fear driven move. In my next piece I will focus on altcoins that are set to benefit as we move toward the peak of this cycle.
- Purrgle
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is based on independent research and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk, and you could lose all your capital. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses or actions taken based on this content.