$ADA #CardanoDebate #IsraelIranConflict $BTC
Unless Bitcoin updates its core encryption within the next five years, the trust it has built over sixteen years could be shattered by a single quantum attack. Urgent updates are critically needed to protect the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin must upgrade or become a victim of quantum computing within 5 years
Opinion
Subscribe
Opinion: David Carvalho, Founder, CEO, and Chief Scientist at Norris Protocol
Satoshi Nakamoto changed our definition of money. In response to the collapse of the financial institutions in which millions of people placed their trust in 2008, Satoshi created a decentralized monetary system based on elliptic curve cryptography.
This combination of cold mathematics and decentralization has been powerful, attracting not only hardened skeptics but also the largest financial institutions in the world, such as BlackRock.
Bitcoin has never been breached in its sixteen years of existence. But all of that is about to change soon with the advent of quantum computing. This represents the biggest threat to Bitcoin since its inception in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Once an integral part of the science fiction world, quantum computers have become advanced enough that they may be able to crack Bitcoin encryption in five years or less. Some, like quantum expert Michele Mosca, expect this to be possible by next year.
Government agencies, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Security Agency, are seeking to fully transition to quantum-safe standards by 2030. However, the Bitcoin community seems to be stuck in theoretical solutions, like BIP-360 (quantum-resistant payment for hash preimage) or commitment and delay-reveal schemes.
The time for theorizing is over. If concrete steps to adapt the Bitcoin blockchain are not taken now, the future of Bitcoin may be over.
Bitcoin
$104,607
Its market value of $2.2 trillion could fade away. All it takes is one wallet breach or a failed transaction to erode the trust that has been painstakingly built over 16 years.
The rise of supercomputers
The real achievement of this year has been Microsoft's Majorana chip, which has accelerated the development of a highly efficient quantum computer from decades to years. Simply put, it achieved this by paving the way for scalable and stable quantum systems, which are two of the most significant hurdles preventing this technological miracle.
A few months later, we currently find ourselves with around 100 quantum computers already operating in the world. McKinsey estimates that their number will reach 5,000 by 2030. These computers are not only faster than the devices we are used to, but they are an entirely new breed of computers that perform calculations in parallel rather than sequentially.
Latest: Is the future of Bitcoin at risk due to quantum technology?
This threatens traditional encryption, such as the ECDSA algorithm that protects Bitcoin private keys. At least 30% of Bitcoin, or approximately 6.2 million coins, are currently held in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses or reused hash addresses P2PK, which are particularly vulnerable to this quantum threat.
Any breach would be catastrophic for its holders, who would lose their money forever, and for the ecosystem as a whole. It would prove that the invincible system is breakable. That’s why BlackRock recently acknowledged the quantum threat to Bitcoin in its updated ETF filing. So, it’s time to act now, before it’s too late.
Preparing for the day of questions
"Quantum Day" is the term coined for the day when quantum computers are finally ready to break traditional encryption. On this day, Bitcoin transactions that are verified and secured today, or even ten years ago, may be at risk, because blockchain technology is completely transparent, and data remains permanently available on this ledger.
Moreover, attackers are already collecting encrypted data in preparation for Q Day, in a move known as "harvest now, decrypt later." It is not unlikely that several attacks will occur simultaneously around the world as Q Day approaches. At that point, Bitcoin must be ready.
Post-quantum future
The problem with upgrading an entire blockchain from old encryption to post-quantum encryption is that it requires a hard fork, a topic that has become almost taboo in cryptocurrency communities. This massive step could lead to a disruption of user experience, fragmentation of liquidity, a risk of network split, and possibly alienate hardcore original cryptocurrency developers.
There are alternatives: hybrid solutions that focus on securing transactions first and foremost without compromising the underlying layer, multi-layer security models, and quantum-safe key management, as well as infrastructure that can prepare Bitcoin for the impending attack for sure.
There is no quick fix, especially considering how historically conservative and slow Bitcoin has been. Unfortunately, there is no time left to waste. Decisions must be made and solutions chosen, as Bitcoin will not survive as it is in a post-quantum future.
Satoshi introduced a new monetary system to the world, but he never said it couldn't evolve. Now, it is up to the cryptocurrency community to decide to develop it and prepare for "Q" Day, rather than waiting until it’s too late. It’s not quantum that poses the biggest risk to Bitcoin, but complacency.
