Based on historical patterns between the bottom and cycle top, Bitcoin is most likely to reach the peak of the fourth cycle around October 2025.
This was conveyed by one of the crypto market analysts on platform X, with the account name CryptoCon. He explained that with a count of 152 weeks from the bottom, BTC is currently only 21 weeks or 5 months away from that point.
BTC Cycle Pattern Consistent
In the three previous cycles (2011-2022), Bitcoin consistently reached its peak around week 152 to 154 after the bottom:
Cycle 1 (2011-2014): Peak in week 154.
Cycle 2 (2015-2018): Peak in week 152.
Cycle 3 (2019-2022): Peak in week 152.
Cycle 4 (2023-2026): Currently week 133, with a predicted peak in October 2025.
If this pattern continues, the remaining time of about 5 months will become the final accumulation and euphoria phase before the potential long-term decline (bear market).
In this case, CryptoCon also stated that compared to previous cycles, most have completed the 'first cycle top' or early peak and are preparing for a final surge towards the main peak at this point in the near future.
The current cycle appears slower, leading some parties to speculate that the cycle could extend until 2026. However, most data and technical structures support the scenario that the peak will be reached by the end of 2025, not later.
"Some people believe the cycle will extend to 2026 due to the slow price movement. However, the data so far actually supports that the end of 2025 is the cycle point," he said.
Patience is Strategy
With the remaining time becoming narrower, the current phase can be considered as the last preparation moment before the peak. Like previous cycles, a significant surge could occur in a matter of weeks, not months.
However, it is also important to remain realistic. Not all cycles are identical, and various macro factors and liquidity can influence the duration and shape of the cycle.
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