Bitcoin market trend analysis as of June 14, 2025
I. Current market performance
Price volatility
As of today, Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating in the $104,000–$106,000 range, with a 24-hour decline of about 0.5%-2.5% (there are discrepancies among different data sources), and the market cap remains stable at around $2.1 trillion. This morning, the price briefly dipped to $102,600 due to the escalation in the Middle East, but then rebounded above $105,000, indicating fierce market contention between bulls and bears.
Technical signals
Short-term trend: The 4-hour chart shows that the MA7 and MA30 moving averages are close to a golden cross, the MACD green histogram is shortening, and downward momentum is weakening, but price is constrained by the descending trendline (resistance at $106,000).
Key levels:
Support level: $104,000 (psychological barrier), if it drops below, it may trigger technical selling;
Resistance level: $106,000 (breaking above may challenge the previous high of $110,000).
Conflicting indicators: RSI (around 60) shows neutrality, KDJ is oversold but lacks a clear rebound signal, making market direction uncertain for now.
II. Core driving factors
Geopolitical shocks
The escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rise in global risk aversion, with Bitcoin plunging by 5% in a single day, and over $1.1 billion liquidated across the network within 24 hours. Although the conflict has not further escalated, market concerns about tail risks continue to suppress risk assets.
Capital flows and policies
Positive news: Texas, USA has passed a $50 billion Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 13 consecutive days (single day +$70.2 million), and institutional funds are increasing their holdings of ETH against the trend (whales bought 70,465 coins in 3 days).
Negative news: Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $616 million in a single day, and expectations for Fed interest rate cuts have been delayed (72% probability in June), with high interest rate environment suppressing risk appetite.
Technical upgrades and competition
The Ethereum Pectra upgrade has been delayed due to testnet vulnerabilities, diverting funds to Solana and other low gas fee public chains, with Ethereum DeFi's locked value percentage dropping to 32%, indirectly affecting Bitcoin's ecosystem heat.
III. Operational strategy recommendations
Short-term strategy
Bullish: If it stabilizes above $105,500, consider a small long position with a target of $106,000–$110,000 and a stop-loss below $104,000.
Bearish: If it drops below $104,000, consider a short position with a target of $102,000–$100,000 and a stop-loss above $105,000.
Hedge: Pay attention to the ETH/BTC exchange rate (0.0238), if it drops below 0.020, consider shorting ETH/BTC for arbitrage.
Medium to long-term strategy
Allocation recommendations: Total position ≤ 60%, BTC/ETH ratio 7:3, retain 30% cash to handle fluctuations.
Investment opportunity: Standard Chartered maintains a year-end Bitcoin target of $200,000, and a reduction in miner selling pressure after the halving allows for low-cost accumulation.
IV. Risk warnings
Geopolitical conflict: Iran claims 'endless retaliation', if the situation deteriorates, it may trigger over $1 billion in liquidations in a single day.
Macro data: If US non-farm payroll data exceeds expectations, it may delay interest rate cuts and suppress risk assets.
Technical correction: If it falls below $100,000 (maximum pain point for options), it may trigger $930 million in programmed selling.
Summary
Today, Bitcoin is showing a volatile recovery trend, short-term pressure from geopolitical risks and ETF capital outflows, but strong support at $104,000. A breakout above $106,000 will initiate a new upward cycle, otherwise, be cautious of a deep correction. Investors need to flexibly operate combining technical signals and macro dynamics, prioritizing position risk management.