The U.S. tariff policy profoundly impacts the crypto market through multiple economic transmission mechanisms, exhibiting characteristics of simultaneous short-term shocks and long-term structural effects. The following is an analysis based on the latest market dynamics:
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### ⚡ 1. Short-term Shock: Market Volatility and Worsening Risk Sentiment
1. **Liquidity Tightening and Sell-off Pressure**
Tariff policies exacerbate global economic uncertainty, triggering sell-offs in risk assets. From February to April 2025, the Trump administration raised tariffs on Chinese goods to **54%-125%**, and imposed **20%-46%** tariffs on the EU, Japan, and South Korea. The total market capitalization of the crypto market evaporated by **$1 trillion**, with Bitcoin plummeting **8%** in one week (from $100,000 to $91,000), and over **$900 million** in liquidations across the network. Investors, needing to meet margin calls on U.S. stocks or hold cash, were forced to liquidate crypto positions.
2. **Increased Correlation with Risk Assets**
The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen to **0.66**, behaving more like tech stocks rather than an independent safe-haven asset. During the same period, gold rose **10.3%**, with only **3%** of fund managers preferring Bitcoin during the trade war, while **58%** chose gold.
3. **Mining Cost Increase**
Mining hardware (such as ASIC chips) faces a **17%** increase due to tariffs on Chinese products, directly pushing up the return period for mining investments. If compounded by semiconductor supply chain disruptions (e.g., export controls on chips below 16nm), delays in mining hardware delivery may lead to centralization of computing power.
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### 🔄 2. Transmission Mechanism: How Policies Penetrate the Crypto Market
| **Impact Pathway** | **Direct Effect** | **Case Studies and Data** |
|----------------------|-----------------------------|----------------------------------|
| **Inflation Expectations** | Price increases for imported goods raise CPI, with average annual spending for U.S. households increasing by **$4,000** | During the monetary easing period in 2020, Bitcoin rose **300%**, and current inflation expectations may replicate similar logic |
| **Dollar Liquidity** | Reduced dollar supply due to shrinking trade, safe-haven demand drives up the dollar exchange rate | A stronger dollar suppresses BTC pricing, with the DXY index rising in April while BTC fell to **$74,000** |
| **Regulatory Uncertainty** | Trade war triggers enhanced capital controls, stablecoins (e.g., USDT) face scrutiny risks | Demand for USDT surges when emerging market currencies depreciate, but sanctions could threaten liquidity |
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### 💎 3. Long-term Structural Impact: Opportunities in the New Order
1. **Strengthened Anti-Inflation Narrative**
If tariffs continue to push prices higher, Bitcoin's **fixed supply** characteristic may attract hedging demand. Historical analogy: During the pandemic in 2020, combined with the trade war, BTC rose from $7,000 to $69,000.
2. **De-dollarization and the Rise of Crypto Settlements**
Multiple countries attempt to use Bitcoin to circumvent the dollar system:
- Energy transactions between China and Russia use BTC for settlement
- Bolivia explores crypto payments for energy imports
If sovereign nations incorporate BTC into reserves, it may catalyze its emergence as a 'neutral settlement layer'.
3. **Expansion of Blockchain Technology Applications**
Companies adopt blockchain to optimize supply chains to lower tariff costs (e.g., Avalanche chain improves cross-border payment efficiency, with fees only **$0.01-0.1**).
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### 🎯 4. Asset Class Differentiation: Who is Affected? Who Benefits?
| **Asset Type** | **Short-term Impact** | **Long-term Potential** |
|----------------|---------------------|--------------------------|
| **Bitcoin** | High-risk attributes lead to sell-offs | Inflation hedge and sovereign reserve value |
| **Stablecoins** | Safe-haven demand boosts trading volume | Alternative channels for cross-border payments |
| **Altcoins** | Plummeting **50%** (e.g., Meme coins) | Dependent on actual application scenarios |
| **Mining Company Stocks** | Cost pressures compress profits | Industry consolidation enhances leading firms' shares |
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### ⚖️ 5. Key Variables and Strategy Recommendations
1. **Policy Observation Points**:
- Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations (the market has priced in **4 cuts of 25 basis points** each)
- Whether retaliatory tariffs from various countries trigger stagflation (global GDP may lose **$1.4 trillion**)
2. **Investor Strategies**:
- Short-term avoidance of high-beta assets (e.g., Meme coins), focus on on-chain data (HODLer holding changes)
- Long-term allocation to inflation-hedging assets (BTC, mining stocks) and cross-border payment public chains (AVAX, APTOS)
3. **Corporate Responses**:
- Mining companies relocating capacity to Southeast Asia/Mexico to avoid hardware tariffs
- Exchanges strengthen compliance to address potential anti-money laundering scrutiny