The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the market will fluctuate for a while before soaring, and if it stops fighting, it will soar immediately.

Despite Israel's recent airstrikes on Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently stable at around $106,000.

The short-term price trend of Bitcoin will depend on the developments of the Iran conflict today and over the weekend. The biggest risk is if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will soar, and risk assets will plummet. If this happens over the weekend, all-weather markets like cryptocurrencies will be hit first.

However, Bitcoin's long-term prospects are less affected by geopolitical issues and are more related to the weakening of the US dollar (the dollar recently fell to its lowest point in three years), indicating that limited supply assets like Bitcoin have long-term upside potential.

As an emerging macro asset, Bitcoin continues to attract close attention from both retail and institutional investors. However, as Bitcoin gradually develops into an independent asset class, there remains a divergence in the market regarding whether it possesses both risk and 'hedging' attributes.

Despite macro and geopolitical instability, large funds continue to flow into Bitcoin.

Despite uncertainties in the macro economy and escalating geopolitical tensions, long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC.

Specifically, wallets in the 'accumulation addresses' group (defined as wallets that have never sold a single satoshi and have been active for the past seven years) recorded an inflow of 30,784 BTC (equivalent to about $3.3 billion) on June 11. This is the highest daily inflow so far in 2025.

After this surge, the total amount of BTC held by accumulation addresses has reached 2.91 million BTC. Currently, their average price is about $64,000.

Today's fear index is 63, still in a state of greed.

The conflict is still ongoing, so the current market is hesitant to surge. If you have Bitcoin, just hold on to it; it won't drop much.

Currently, ETH has become the focus of capital inflow against the trend. On-chain data reveals that most institutions and whales are 'increasing their positions to stabilize the market'. The stable upward channel pattern is still maintained, and combined with seasonal corrections and year-end investment strategy expectations, multiple signals support a breakthrough rise for ETH by the end of 2025. The trend of institutionalization is gradually pushing ETH into the mainstream investment market. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of ETH at this moment is higher than that of Bitcoin, so it’s good to gradually enter at 2500-2300-2000 levels.

The current market environment is extremely favorable for Bitcoin, and it is expected that Bitcoin will continue to rise amidst fluctuations. The likelihood of a deep correction of more than 30% before it reaches at least $140,000 to $160,000 is low. The policies adopted by Trump during the trade war became a key bottom signal for Bitcoin.

Currently, it is still

1. Reduce leverage to avoid liquidation.

2. Pay attention to key support levels.

3. Turn to stablecoins for hedging.

4. Pay attention to the flow of institutional funds, build positions in batches to avoid one-time investments.