1. U.S. stocks undergo a comprehensive correction, and market risk appetite sharply contracts.
On June 13, 2025, after the U.S. stock market opened, the four major stock indices collectively weakened, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experiencing simultaneous corrections, while the Russell 2000 index, dominated by small-cap stocks, led the decline with particularly noticeable losses. Overall, market risk appetite has rapidly cooled.
Investor concerns about the current geopolitical tensions have heated up, directly pushing the market volatility index—VIX panic index has risen to 20.82, marking the market's official entry into a high volatility zone. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has also dropped to around 52 points, indicating a shift in market sentiment from previously positive to more conservative and cautious.
2. The situation in the Middle East continues to ferment, and soaring oil prices boost inflation expectations.
Recently, tensions in the Middle East have continued to escalate, and regional conflicts have triggered a rapid rise in international crude oil prices. Although core CPI data does not cover energy items, for an economy like the United States that heavily relies on oil supplies, rising oil prices will inevitably increase operating costs in downstream industries such as transportation and services, thereby exerting strong upward pressure on overall inflation.
Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the June meeting, it simultaneously raised its expectations for core inflation, indicating that its future room for rate cuts is being squeezed. If geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, potentially involving the United States itself, scenarios such as a surge in fiscal spending, an expanded deficit, and a bloated scale of national debt issuance cannot be ruled out, which would put deeper pressure on high-risk assets like U.S. stocks.
JPMorgan warns that if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz worsens further, leading to a blockade of shipping, international oil prices could surge to the range of $120 to $130, becoming a key variable affecting global markets.
3. The volatility of crypto assets is relatively controllable, and Ethereum continues to attract institutional funding.
In stark contrast to the sharp fluctuations in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin remains stable, oscillating around $105,000. Although short-term market participants frequently enter and exit, long-term holders respond relatively calmly to the periodic price fluctuations. Overall, BTC market sentiment has not shown signs of panic.
It is worth noting that institutional investors continue to increase their allocation to crypto assets: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling $86.31 million; Ethereum's performance is even more impressive, with its spot ETF recording net inflows for 19 consecutive days, accumulating $112 million. This trend indicates that institutional funds in the U.S. show a significantly higher preference for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, which may suggest greater growth potential for ETH in the next phase.
4. Clear support range for Bitcoin, on-chain chips continue to accumulate.
From a technical structure perspective, the strongest support range for Bitcoin is between $93,000 and $98,000; near the current price of $105,000, on-chain data shows that 1.8 million BTC chips have been traded, indicating a critical point for price direction choice due to the ongoing accumulation in the concentrated area.
From the perspective of capital inflow structure, the overall market's stablecoin funds have risen to $260.3 billion. Among them, USDT's market value has seen a slight increase, while USDC has slightly declined, reflecting a gradual stagnation of capital inflows from Asia, and American domestic funds have also begun to show signs of marginal retreat. This increase in funds mainly comes from the inclusion of Binance Bridged USDT, driving structural growth in the total amount of stablecoins.
5. Weak liquidity, focus on defense in the short term.
Although institutions continue to allocate to crypto assets, overall market liquidity remains weak. Unlike the traditional capital-driven rally expected by the end of 2024, this round of upward movement relies more on internal fund dynamics, lacking sufficient external inflows to support the market, resulting in relatively weak market support.
The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the biggest uncertainty factor for the market, and the traditionally low trading liquidity during the weekend will amplify the volatility risks triggered by sudden events. For contract investors, it is recommended to strictly control leverage and be wary of passive liquidation risks. For spot investors, patience is advised, waiting for the market to further correct before strategically deploying quality targets in batches, maintaining a flexible response strategy.
