It's the weekend again, and the market has no trading desire. After the decline, a correction is needed, but the correction time is uncertain, and it happens to be a weekend with low liquidity. The current market is similar to March to August 2024, where both rising and falling are difficult, showing a back-and-forth oscillation pattern. It is recommended to take a proper rest and only hold some mainstream coins in spot. The probability of loss in high multiple contracts is quite high. Weekend liquidity is low, volatility may decrease, and altcoins may rebound due to capital inflow, which is worth paying attention to.
BTC
Bitcoin's hourly rebound has touched the hourly resistance level, compounded by the daily MA30 line resistance. A short-term hourly pullback is expected, and after the second bottom is observed, the rebound strength will be monitored. The daily double top pattern has appeared, and the price may continue to drop to the daily or even weekly MA30 support.
Support levels 102400, 97670, 95860, 93530. Resistance levels 107340, 110300, 120400, 130000. Bitcoin is under short-term pressure; pay attention to the rebound strength after the second bottom and opportunities in altcoins.
ETH
Affected by the rapid decline of Bitcoin, Ethereum has also dropped to the daily EMA52 line (2420) level. It formed a fluctuating rebound at the hourly level but only closed as a bearish candle, unlike Bitcoin which closed bullish. After the rebound touched the daily MA30 line and the 45-minute resistance level, it fell again with Bitcoin.
The daily chart shows a long lower shadow bearish candle, and the downward momentum has not been fully released. The price is expected to continue to follow Bitcoin for support. The MA30 line is flattening, and the MACD momentum above the zero axis is weakening, showing a top divergence pattern. Short-term rises are only seen as a rebound. Support levels 2420 (EMA52), 2320, 2200, 2130. Resistance levels 2600, 2730, 2960, 3060. Ethereum is weak in the short term, with limited rebound space; pay attention to the performance at the 2420 support.
Many fans ask me: wild fluctuations! What should we pay attention to when trading Bitcoin and Ethereum? Can we still play altcoins?
1. Contracts, high multiples, small bets for big gains; this is the core idea of this strategy. First, consider where the risk points are; high leverage increases our returns while amplifying our risks, further reducing our tolerance.
2. Next, it's calculation problems: open 10x leverage, reverse 10% liquidation; open 20x leverage, reverse 5% liquidation;
3. Fortunately, a 5%-10% fluctuation in the current market is no longer considered small;
4. The only way to improve the tolerance of this strategy is to have enough patience to wait for a position that does not reverse by 5% or 10% according to your trading system, and then go for it;
5. You can't have it both ways; high risk and high return require patience and precision. There are no opportunities for you to lay out slowly, and no opportunities for you to be vague about what is correct, because the core is to take small bets to gain large returns, quickly multiply, and you can only wait patiently for that one decisive strike;
6. Don't consider compound interest; the more you do, the more mistakes you make, and the more mistakes you make, the less you will know how to do it. Accumulate energy in fewer high multiples; if you do more, you will do it right. After all, the number of trades you can make in a lifetime is limited.
Which altcoins still have opportunities? Focus on 'anti-elimination' assets; projects with the following characteristics may cross cycles:
1. Low circulation + strong fundamentals target.
SOL: 100% circulation + active ecosystem (TVL annual increase of 40%), selling pressure has been released;
2. Cash flow type DeFi protocols.
AAVE/UNI: protocol revenue increases by >5% monthly, buyback mechanism supports token value!
'Survivor game' under the new rules for altcoins.
Cannot play: blindly chasing garbage coins, stubbornly holding VC projects, ignoring the 'faith holdings' under unlock pressure.
Still playable: focus on compliant tracks (RWA), technological breakthroughs (AI/L2), and cash flow (DeFi) in three asset categories!
Patiently wait for three major signals: Bitcoin sideways, ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthening, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Finally: I have to mention Trump.
The latest financial report shows that he earned over $57 million through crypto public WLFI last year, becoming the biggest 'gold mine'.
WLFI focuses on cryptocurrency lending and yield, raising $11 million in token funding, with Trump holding 15.75 billion governance tokens, sharing over $57 million in profit. It has become his main cash flow for the year.
It has to be that the 'big shots' play it well~
