1. Introduction
The global financial market is experiencing a qualitative change in its perception of Bitcoin. From being hyped as "digital gold" to being gradually regarded as a potential holding target, the positioning of Bitcoin by major economies and large institutions around the world is shifting from "high-volatility risk assets" to "strategic reserve assets". Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been launched in the United States and Hong Kong, and the scale of assets has continued to grow; Trump returned to the White House and clearly placed blockchain and digital assets at the national strategic level, proposed strategic Bitcoin reserves and gradually implemented a series of favorable policies; countries including El Salvador and Bhutan have included Bitcoin in their national balance sheets. At the same time, listed companies such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, and use the issuance of convertible bonds or corporate bonds to leverage the purchase of coins, trying to seize the initiative in the new round of monetary system evolution. This is not only a switch in the logic of financial asset allocation, but also a prelude to a redrawing of the national strategy and capital power map.
This article will analyze the impact of macro variables such as interest rates, inflation, regulation, and the US "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" on the differentiation of crypto assets; sort out the holding patterns and driving forces of six types of entities, including ETFs, governments, listed and private companies, mining companies, and DeFi. Then, it will predict the change path of institutional holdings of Bitcoin from 2025 to 2026, analyze the possible evolution trend of the market in combination with the fixed supply characteristics, summarize the competitive attributes of Bitcoin in a multipolar world, and propose a thinking path for investors' asset allocation, aiming to provide readers with a panoramic picture of "who is hoarding coins, why hoarding coins, and where hoarding coins will push Bitcoin."
2. Analysis of institutional holdings
According to Bitbo Treasuries statistics, as of June 10, 2025, there are 139 institutional entities holding Bitcoin, holding approximately 3,303,688 Bitcoins, equivalent to 15.73% of the total 21 million issued, with a total market value of approximately US$361.6 billion. Among them, ETF holdings account for 6.60% of the total, becoming the largest circulation channel for Bitcoin, followed by listed companies and national institutions. At the same time, the entry of private enterprises and DeFi projects has enriched the holding structure and diversified the source of funds.
Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/
1. ETF holdings analysis
Since 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved and implemented one after another, providing institutional investors with a compliance channel and providing institutions with an investment tool that "does not require a self-held wallet". As of June 10, 2025, 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs held a total of approximately 1.38 million BTC, accounting for 6.6% of the circulation, with a market value of approximately US$151.7 billion. Among them, BlackRock IBIT accounts for 3.16% of the global supply and 55% of all ETF positions; Fidelity FBTC and Grayscale GBTC followed closely behind, and the two locked nearly 1.8% of the Bitcoin supply. The flow of funds shows that after a brief correction at the end of May, ETFs once again absorbed net buying: on June 9, the net subscription was US$392 million per day, and IBIT and FBTC contributed more than 76% of the increase.
As wealth management platforms such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase are expected to open Bitcoin ETF purchasing rights in the second half of the year, the market generally expects that total ETF holdings this year will exceed 1.5 million, continuing to strengthen the attractiveness of the "wallet-free" position-building channel for institutions.
2. Analysis of national institutional holdings
In March 2025, the United States issued an executive order requiring the Treasury Department to use confiscated Bitcoin to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and develop a budget-neutral strategy to increase its holdings of BTC, making it clear that Bitcoin held by the government "shall not be sold" and will be retained as a treasury asset for a long time. On April 29, the Arizona legislature passed a bill allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin. Oklahoma has also proposed a proposal to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. In addition, states such as Texas and Alabama are also following suit, trying to diversify asset risks and seize digital economic opportunities through legislation.
Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/countries/
3. Analysis of listed companies’ holdings
At the corporate level, MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) is far ahead. As of May 2025, Strategy has accumulated more than 582,000 bitcoins, becoming the world's largest corporate holder. MicroStrategy is building a unique business model by issuing bitcoin-backed bonds and preferred stocks, and has completed three bitcoin-backed preferred stock issuances in the past five months. On June 11, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that Bitcoin has passed the most dangerous stage and there will be no bear market in the future. He predicted that the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million, and emphasized that the senior US government is supportive of Bitcoin. He said that international capital is accelerating into the Bitcoin field, and the next ten years may be the last window period for obtaining Bitcoin. Michael Saylor often publishes information related to Bitcoin Tracker through his X account, and usually discloses Strategy's Bitcoin holdings data the day after he publishes Bitcoin Tracker information.
Source: https://x.com/saylor
In addition, other "high-faith" companies are also hoarding coins. Marathon Digital holds about 49,200 coins, Riot Blockchain about 19,200 coins, CleanSpark about 12,500 coins, Tesla has not increased its holdings since 2022, and currently holds about 11,500 coins, Hut8 about 10,300 coins, and Coinbase also disclosed 9,267 bitcoin reserves, mainly for operations and hedging. In addition, the market value of Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, has also soared due to its continued purchase of bitcoins.
Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#public
4. Analysis of private company holdings
Many unlisted fintech companies, family offices and funds are also investing in Bitcoin. Globally, many technology companies and wealthy families have included Bitcoin in their balance sheets. For example, US private equity funds and hedge funds have increased their holdings of BTC through over-the-counter channels, and some have established special Bitcoin trusts. Private mining companies (such as Genesis Mining, etc.) also retain mining income in the form of Bitcoin. Some fund management platforms and bank wealth management departments (such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, etc.) are estimated to invest tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin in 2025-26. In general, the private sector is interested in Bitcoin, motivated by hedging inflation, diversifying investments, and planning ahead for the future of the digital economy.
Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#private
5. Analysis of Bitcoin mining companies’ holdings
The top miners are tending to increase the proportion of Bitcoin they hold. Many mining companies have stated that they will use "hoarding coins" as a new strategy after the halving in 2024. On the one hand, they will improve efficiency and output by operating their own mining pools (such as Marathon's MARA Pool), and on the other hand, they will reduce immediate cash out. For example, Marathon held nearly 49,200 Bitcoins by May 2025, and did not sell any new output in May; most of Riot's output in recent years has also been retained, with a position of nearly 19,200 Bitcoins; Hut8 increased its holdings by 974 Bitcoins at the end of 2024, making its Bitcoin reserve market value exceed US$1 billion. These mining companies are optimistic about the tightening of supply and the upward trend of Bitcoin prices after the halving, and will gradually turn mining rewards into long-term reserves. They actively explore fixed income channels (such as mining pools or loans) to cover operating costs and reduce the need to raise funds by selling Bitcoin. Mining company executives generally believe that the fixed supply of Bitcoin determines that it is "more valuable the more you hoard", which provides a strong motivation for them to hold positions.
Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/miners/
6. Analysis of BTC TVL on DeFi Platform
Wrapped Bitcoin tokens such as wBTC and cbBTC allow users to hold Bitcoin on different blockchain networks. According to Coingecko data, wBTC currently has a market value of approximately $13.6 billion, and Coinbase's cbBTC has a market value of approximately $4.7 billion. The Bitcoin ecosystem in the decentralized financial sector is also developing rapidly. Various Bitcoin Layer2 projects are in the ascendant: the Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon has 47,600 Bitcoins staked, with a market value of approximately $5.1 billion. LBTC, as a Bitcoin liquid staking token based on Babylon, allows users to maintain the value of the original asset and gain income while participating in DeFi. The current market value has reached $1.9 billion. These protocols are all bringing new liquidity tools and income opportunities to Bitcoin, accelerating institutions to convert idle Bitcoin into income assets.
Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#defi
3. Analysis of the reasons why institutions increase their Bitcoin holdings
From the depreciation of the US dollar, inflationary pressure to the demand for global asset reconfiguration, coupled with the supporting support of policies and regulations, these constitute the fundamental motivation for the institutional "coin hoarding wave" in 2025, driving various institutions to increase their holdings of Bitcoin.
1. Macro reasons why institutions increase their holdings of Bitcoin
In 2025, global institutions launched an unprecedented Bitcoin hoarding wave. The reasons behind this are not only based on profound macroeconomic logic, but also inseparable from the support of an increasingly mature policy and regulatory environment. As the global macroeconomic environment continues to change, the trend of institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings is expected to continue for a long time, further strengthening Bitcoin's role as a global strategic reserve asset.
Dollar depreciation and continued inflationary pressure: In recent years, it has become a global consensus that the dollar is under pressure. The US government debt has exceeded 36 trillion US dollars, accounting for a historical high of 123% of GDP, causing international investors to worry about the long-term stability of the US dollar and US debt. At the same time, the continued high inflation around the world has significantly reduced the actual returns of traditional financial assets. In a high inflation environment, various institutions have to look for assets that can effectively resist the erosion of inflation. Bitcoin is gradually regarded as a safe-haven reserve tool similar to gold due to its scarcity, decentralization and high global liquidity.
The policy and regulatory environment has gradually become clearer: The US policy stance has also undergone a dramatic change. The newly issued executive order by the White House clearly states that the United States "supports blockchain" and believes that "legal stablecoins" will help maintain the sovereignty of the US dollar. The two parties in Congress have also proposed a number of draft regulations, planning to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins and crypto assets, and authorizing financial institutions to create compliant digital asset products. More than 20 of the 50 states in the United States have proposed or are considering legislation related to Bitcoin reserves, covering public fund allocation, tax incentives and regulatory frameworks. In terms of regulatory agencies, the SEC and CFTC are also accelerating the layout of crypto regulations by the end of 2024. Overall, the United States is evolving from strict regulation to a relaxed and friendly direction, providing greater certainty for institutional investment.
The global asset reconfiguration wave and the industry demonstration effect: The return on traditional financial assets continues to be sluggish, and the investment returns on stocks and bonds are facing challenges, forcing institutional investors to reconfigure assets. Since the beginning of 2025, the asset management scale of the US Bitcoin ETF has risen rapidly, providing a convenient and compliant investment channel for institutional funds, accelerating the allocation of institutional funds to Bitcoin. In addition, MicroStrategy's high-profile hoarding of coins has a great demonstration effect. In the past few years, more and more companies, funds, and even government agencies have followed suit, forming a consensus and group behavior of institutional holdings of Bitcoin. This demonstration effect has been continuously strengthened by the industry, accelerating the inflow of institutional funds.
2. Micro-reasons for institutions to increase their holdings of Bitcoin
Government/sovereign fund demand: It is a strategic demand of a country to diversify its sovereign assets and hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical risks. For example, the United States has promoted legislation to establish a Bitcoin "strategic reserve" to hold confiscated Bitcoins for a long time. Overall, governments currently hold about 2.3% of the total supply of Bitcoin. Although the scale is not large, collective action is enough to affect prices.
Listed companies and large enterprises: In terms of corporate treasury management, listed companies represented by MicroStrategy have a great demonstration effect. MicroStrategy founder Saylor has repeatedly reiterated that he will increase his holdings of Bitcoin indefinitely. Influenced by this, many global listed companies have taken the initiative to include Bitcoin in their financial assets. The main motivation for companies to increase their holdings of Bitcoin is to hedge against the depreciation of corporate funds, increase asset returns and attract investor attention.
Private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises: In addition to large listed companies, some private enterprises and companies with smaller market capitalization are also actively involved. For example, some companies raise funds through equity financing and then purchase crypto assets. Whether it is a technology giant or a traditional industry enterprise, Bitcoin is allocated on the balance sheet to optimize financial conditions and cope with macro uncertainties.
ETF issuers and institutional asset management: After the United States approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, traditional asset management giants quickly entered the market. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeded $70 billion in AUM just one year after its listing, setting a record for the fastest scale growth in history; the Bitcoin held by the fund accounts for about 3.15% of the global circulating supply, making it an important player in the market. ETFs provide a convenient channel for institutions and funds that are unwilling to hold coins directly, attracting a large amount of institutional funds to enter the market. At the same time, traditional asset management companies have also enhanced their performance by increasing their Bitcoin investment positions. The increase in Bitcoin allocation by institutional asset management has driven a large amount of capital inflows, boosting prices.
Mining companies: Mining companies are rewarded with Bitcoins for mining, and their costs are much lower than the current price. It is reported that the mining cost in 2025 is about 26,000-28,000 US dollars per coin, while the market price is about 100,000 US dollars. Therefore, in the bull market, miners are often not in a hurry to sell and turn to hoarding coins. Take Marathon as an example. It continued to purchase Bitcoin from January to May 2025. As of now, its holdings have reached 49,200 coins, making it the second largest listed mining company in the world. This hoarding behavior is partly to hedge against the sharp drop in production caused by halving (block rewards will drop to 3.125 coins after May 2024, and the annual inflation rate <0.5%), and it also shows that miners are optimistic about future prices.
DeFi platforms and protocols: The decentralized financial sector has also begun to absorb Bitcoin. Some protocols support Bitcoin as collateral to issue stablecoins or synthetic assets, providing a source of income for the platform. The entry of institutional capital into the DeFi ecosystem has accelerated this process. Some institutions are exploring the possibility of combining traditional bonds or real estate with Bitcoin through DeFi. As the regulatory framework gradually becomes clearer, the DeFi platform has a stronger demand for compliance, and incorporating Bitcoin into the ecosystem can improve its stability and attractiveness.
4. How does institutional investment reconstruct Bitcoin’s price mechanism?
1. Traditional price driving mechanism: In the past, Bitcoin price trends were mainly driven by retail investor sentiment and supply and demand fundamentals, which were driven by the dual wheels of "bull market expectations + halving cycle". Retail investor enthusiasm often led to rapid increases in exchange buying, while market panic or large-scale selling led to a sharp drop. At the same time, the halving event every four years significantly reduced the source of new coins from miners, often triggering a new round of bull market after supply tightened.
2. New logic driven by institutions: With the large-scale entry of institutions, the price mechanism of Bitcoin has changed from the past. The higher the holding rate and the lower the circulation volume, the more stable and higher the price, and the increase in market value further attracts the attention of institutions; this feedback loop of "more institutions holding → supply shortage → price increase → market value enlargement → attracting more holdings" is gradually solidifying. :
Structural supply contraction: After the halving, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin has dropped to an extremely low level. 74% of the circulating coins on the chain have not been used in two years, and about 75% of the coins have been dormant in the past six months. This means that only a small number of new coins and active coins can be traded in the market, which greatly weakens the conventional selling pressure. According to analysis, even a small-scale buying shock will have a huge impact on prices.
The proportion of long-term holders increased: As the price of Bitcoin rose, a large number of short-term holders gradually took profits and fled, while long-term holders continued to increase their positions in the high price zone. Many high-priced chips have actually been converted into locked chips, which has enhanced the market's resistance to declines. Overall, the proportion of transactions by institutions and large investors continued to rise, pushing up the proportion of long-term holders and forming a pattern of further tight supply.
Institutional squeeze circulation: A large number of institutions and large funds are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets or trust accounts for long-term holding. At the same time, ETFs and asset management institutions continue to buy, further reducing the tradable supply in the market. More institutions hold ⇒ Reduced tradable supply ⇒ Prices are pushed up, forming a positive feedback loop between price, market value and institutional participation.
The driving force of the Bitcoin market has shifted from short-term speculation and exchange traffic in the early days to institutional hoarding and supply tightening. Under this pattern, Bitcoin prices no longer rely solely on retail sentiment or miner output, but redefine their valuations in the linkage between institutional holdings and macro value cognition. As the analysis points out, the confidence of institutions and long-term holders provides solid support for prices, bringing the Bitcoin market into a new stage of institutionalization and more imbalanced supply and demand.
V. Conclusion and Outlook
The "coin hoarding trend" of ETFs, governments and enterprises has profoundly changed the supply and demand structure and pricing logic of Bitcoin: fixed increments + long-term lock-up have caused the market's circulating stock to continue to shrink; the rigid demand of institutions to hedge against inflation and diversify reserve assets has formed a steady and lasting buying pressure on the demand side. With the institutionalization of the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" in the United States, the implementation of state legislation, and the extensive participation of global sovereign funds, listed companies and mining companies, Bitcoin is accelerating its transformation from a "high-volatility risk asset" to a "strategic reserve asset", entering a new era dominated by institutional behavior.
Price center rises: Under the double squeeze of annualized new supply of less than 0.5% and continuous net inflow of ETF funds, market expectations are switching from "cyclical bull and bear" to "step-by-step rise". Under the baseline scenario, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize in the range of $150,000-180,000 from the end of 2025 to mid-2026; if the US and Europe cut interest rates and more sovereign funds enter the market, the upper limit of the bull market may extend to $250,000.
Volatility slows down: The increase in the proportion of institutional holdings has gradually converged the violent fluctuations of "deep retracement-rapid rebound". On-chain data shows that 74% of the circulating coins have not moved in two years, which means that every institutional-level purchase is raising the bottom and increasing market resilience.
Deepening financialization: Spot ETFs are just the beginning. The futures term structure, Bitcoin pledge yield curve and "BTC-denominated bonds" will be improved at an accelerated pace, providing traditional funds with more abundant hedging and income strategies, and further enhancing the depth and effectiveness of the Bitcoin market.
The on-chain ecosystem is prosperous: Second-layer solutions and liquid pledge protocols such as Babylon, RGB, and BitVM are injecting DeFi and RWA functions into Bitcoin, improving capital efficiency, and absorbing idle BTC from institutions for recycling, which will help the lock-up rate continue to rise in the long run.
Risks and uncertainties: At the macro level, we need to be alert to the sudden tightening of global liquidity, geopolitical black swans and the unexpected expansion of the US fiscal deficit; at the industry level, we still need to pay attention to regulatory differences, protocol security incidents and cash flow pressure of mining companies. In extreme scenarios, prices may experience a phased retracement of more than 30%, but the long-term upward logic is difficult to be fundamentally destroyed.
Overall, Bitcoin is at the intersection of institutionalization, globalization and financialization. The next round of value reassessment has already begun, and 2025-2026 may be the key window period for "repricing Bitcoin on a higher platform."
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